March Madness Betting Trends: Top Seeds Performance Against the Spread
The top teams in the NCAA Tournament get through to the Round of 32, at the very least, more often than not.
No. 1 seeds are 147–1 against No. 16 seeds, No. 2 seeds have gone 138–10 versus No. 15 seeds, No. 14 seeds have a 126–22 record when they face No. 3 seeds and No. 4 seeds are 117–31 all-time against No. 13 seeds. So upsets do happen (hello, St. Peter’s and UMBC) but they are somewhat rare, specifically for No. 1 and No. 2 seeds early on in March Madness.
What’s harder to predict than simply penciling in, say the No. 1 overall seed Alabama to the second round, is how the top-four seeds will fare against the spread (ATS) in their games versus the bottom-four seeds, especially when some lines are 20 points or more.
There are 10 double-digit spreads across the Round of 64 games Thursday and Friday (Alabama and Purdue are still awaiting their opponents, but they’re almost positive to make that number 12) and all of them involve a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
Below are betting profiles for the top 16 teams in the Field of 68, complete with their ATS records, title odds, first-round spreads and notes on their records as heavy favorites and underdogs.
(Title odds and spreads courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Betting records via OddsShark college basketball game logs.)
Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Alabama Record and Betting Trends
Record: 29–5
Record over last 10 games: 8–2
ATS record: 20–14
ATS record over last 10: 5–5
Championship Odds: +700 (2nd)
The Crimson Tide covered at a respectable rate this season, which is no surprise for a team with the 12th-best scoring margin in the nation (+13.3). They were double-digit favorites 12 times this and covered 50% of the time in that scenario. Alabama’s Round of 64 opponent is not yet set, but it figures to be a hefty favorite against either Southeastern Missouri State or Texas A&M-CC. There were only four times all year when the No. 1 seed in the South Region was an underdog: at Houston, at Arkansas, at Tennessee and at Texas A&M. The Tide went 2–2 ATS in that role and won the two games they covered outright. They also went 3–0 ATS in the SEC Tournament en route to their conference title.
No. 1 Houston Record and Betting Trends
Record: 31–3
Record over last 10 games: 9–1
ATS record: 18–16
ATS record over last 10: 3–7
Championship Odds: +450 (1st)
Round of 64 Spread: -19.5 vs. Northern Kentucky
The Cougars were favored every time they took the floor. And the vast majority of the time, they were giving 10 or more points. They went 13–13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points and 10–4 when favored by 20 or more and led the NCAA in scoring margin (+19.5). That’s exactly what Houston’s first round spread against Northern Kentucky is, so it’s good to know that it covers big spots more often than not. The Cougars’ recent struggles against the spread shouldn’t scare bettors off too much, at least early on in the tournament. Three of those losses ATS came against Memphis, one of three teams that beat them this year, and two more were off by a half-point.
No. 1 Kansas Record and Betting Trends
Record: 27–7
Record over last 10 games: 8–2
ATS record: 16–18
ATS record over last 10: 6–4
Championship Odds: +1000 (3rd)
Round of 64 Spread: -22 vs. Howard
In the loaded Big 12, the Jayhawks weren’t installed as double-digit favorites very often once conference play began. And even early on in the season, the defending champs struggled to cover large spreads and finished 2–6 as a double-digit favorite. Kansas was favored in 29 of its 34 games on the year and it went 2–3 ATS and straight up as an underdog (at a neutral site against Tennessee, at Baylor, at Kentucky, at TCU and at Texas). KU should roll in the Round of 64 against Howard, but be advised it’s 1–4 ATS this season as a 20-plus-point favorite.
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No. 1 Purdue Record and Betting Trends
Record: 29–5
Record over last 10 games: 7–3
ATS record: 13–20–1
ATS record over last 10: 3–7
Championship Odds: +1100 (4th)
The Boilermakers are the worst-performing No. 1 seed ATS. They went eight straight games without covering as a favorite early in the year, though they went 7–1 straight up during that stretch. Purdue finished 4–6 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and it’s sure to be a heavy favorite against Fairleigh Dickinson or Texas Southern, the two-lowest graded teams in the Field of 68. The last month or so did not inspire much confidence in the top team from the East Region. After a 22–1 start to the season, the Boilermakers have gone 7–4 straight up and 3–8 ATS. Purdue did deliver as an underdog as it finished 3–2 ATS and straight up in that position.
No. 2 Texas Record and Betting Trends
Record: 26–8
Record over last 10 games: 7–3
ATS record: 17–17
ATS record over last 10: 7–3
Championship Odds: +1600 (T-8th)
Round of 64 Spread: -13.5 vs. Colgate
The Big 12 Champions enter the Big Dance having covered their last five games and six of their last seven. Similarly to Kansas, Texas didn’t have many games in league play with spreads up in the double digits. It went 4–6 ATS on the year as a favorite of 10 or more points, which is the position it will be in against Colgate in the first round. The Longhorns were installed as underdogs seven times and finished 3–4 ATS in that spot with two upset wins under their belt, including one as a two-point underdog against the Jayhawks in the conference title game.
No. 2 Marquette Record and Betting Trends
Record: 28–6
Record over last 10 games: 9–1
ATS record: 21–12–1
ATS record over last 10: 5–5
Championship Odds: +1800 (9th)
Round of 64 Spread: -11 vs. Vermont
The Golden Eagles were one of the best teams in the country to back with a cover rate better than 63%. They didn’t deliver as often down the stretch as they did early on in the year, but they finished 2–1 ATS in the Big East tournament on the way to the conference title. Marquette was more comfortable in an underdog role than as a heavy favorite this season, which is the position it’s in for its Round of 64 matchup with Vermont. The Golden Eagles’ record ATS when favored by 10-plus points was just 4–6 while their underdog mark was a sterling 6–2–1 with five upset wins, including one against UConn as a four-point dog in the Big East semifinal.
No. 2 UCLA Record and Betting Trends
Record: 29–5
Record over last 10 games: 9–1
ATS record: 19–13–2
ATS record over last 10: 6–3–1
Championship Odds: +1200 (5th)
Round of 64 Spread: -17.5 vs. UNC Asheville
The Bruins are not only used to being sizable favorites but they cover often in that position. They are 11–6–1 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points, which is their situation in Round 1 against UNC Asheville. UCLA was rarely installed as an underdog this year—two of the four games in which it got points were against Arizona. It failed to cover either time (including as a 1.5-point dog in the Pac-12 championship) and finished 1–3 ATS in that position. Before their title game loss to the Wildcats, the Bruins had covered four in a row, including a game against Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.
No. 2 Arizona Record and Betting Trends
Record: 28–6
Record over last 10 games: 7–3
ATS record: 17–15–2
ATS record over last 10: 6–4
Championship Odds: +1400 (T-6th)
Round of 64 Spread: -14.5 vs. Princeton
The Wildcats enter the NCAA Tournament having covered their last three games, each time as a favorite, on their way to their Pac-12 title victory. They were only dubbed an underdog once across their 34-game schedule: On the road against UCLA in the regular-season finale, a game they failed to cover despite getting 5.5 points. Arizona is used to being the heavy favorite, which will be the case against Princeton, and it went 6–10–1 ATS when giving 10 or more points.
No. 3 Baylor Record and Betting Trends
Record: 22–10
Record over last 10 games: 6–4
ATS record: 16–15–1
ATS record over last 10: 6–4
Championship Odds: +2000 (10th)
Round of 64 Spread: -10.5 vs. UC Santa Barbara
Iowa State was Baylor’s kryptonite this season. Three times the Bears were favored over the Cyclones and three times (including their last two games) they lost outright. Outside of that specific struggle, they were a solid team to back for most of the year. There were a few massive lines early on in the year, but Baylor wasn’t installed as a sizable favorite often, which should be taken into consideration for its first-round matchup with UC Santa Barbara. Baylor finished 13–13–1 ATS as a favorite and covered eight of its last 10 in that spot.
No. 3 Xavier Record and Betting Trends
Record: 25–9
Record over last 10 games: 6–4
ATS record: 18–15–1
ATS record over last 10: 5–5
Championship Odds: +5000 (T-17th)
Round of 64 Spread: -11.5 vs. Kennesaw State
The Musketeers were underdogs in each of their last two games in the Big East tournament and three of their last five overall, a somewhat spot for a top-four seed. They were installed as an underdog 11 times for the year and went 7–3–1 ATS. But in the Round of 64 against Kennesaw State, Xavier will be a double-digit favorite for the 10th time this season. The team is 4–5 ATS so far in that position and did not cover its last two such games.
James Snook/USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Gonzaga Record and Betting Trends
Record: 28–5
Record over last 10 games: 9–1
ATS record: 14–18
ATS record over last 10: 6–4
Championship Odds: +1400 (T-6th)
Round of 64 Spread: -15.5 vs. Grand Canyon
The Bulldogs began the season 3–7 ATS but they got hot at the right time as they’ve covered four of five heading back into the Big Dance. Even though this Gonzaga team does not enter the tournament as a No. 1 seed as it usually does, it was still favored in all but three games this year: at Texas, a neutral site game against Alabama and at Saint Mary’s. And it’s no stranger to double-digit spreads as it finished 9–10 ATS in such games this season.
No. 3 Kansas State Record and Betting Trends
Record: 23–9
Record over last 10 games: 5–5
ATS record: 21–11
ATS record over last 10: 5–5
Championship Odds: +6500 (T-23rd)
Round of 64 Spread: -8.5 vs. Montana State
Few teams cover more often than the Wildcats. For the year, they did so more than 65% of the time and that rate jumped up to 83% in games in which they were favored. They also enter the tournament having covered each of the last seven games they were favored in dating back to December. In Big 12 play, Kansas State was the underdog more often than not and that was the case for four of its final five games. The Wildcats have a more manageable spread in the Round of 64 against Montana State than many other top-four seeds do.
No. 4 Indiana Record and Betting Trends
Record: 22–11
Record over last 10 games: 6–4
ATS record: 15–17–1
ATS record over last 10: 4–6
Championship Odds: +5500 (20th)
Round of 64 Spread: -4.5 vs. Kent State
The Hoosiers are no juggernaut against the number and their first-round spread against Kent State is the tightest of any of the top-four seeded teams. Indiana went seven straight games early in the year without covering (it was 2–5 straight up during that stretch) and it didn’t close the season very strong, either, by losing to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals as a 3.5-point favorite. IU enters the tournament with a strong resume but its performance when it comes to covering is questionable.
No. 4 Virginia Record and Betting Trends
Record: 25–7
Record over last 10 games: 7–3
ATS record: 13–18–1
ATS record over last 10: 4–6
Championship Odds: +5000 (T-17th)
Round of 64 Spread: -5.5 vs. Furman
The Cavaliers covered in three of their final five games. They were favored in four of them with the outlier the ACC Championship loss to Duke in which they were three-point underdogs. Virginia was not a very reliable team to back for long stretches this season, including a stretch of seven straight losses ATS at the beginning of the year and an 0–4 stretch in February. Don’t count on UVA to cover any large numbers, though they have a manageable line in the Round of 64 against Furman.
No. 4 Tennessee Record and Betting Trends
Record: 23–10
Record over last 10 games: 4–6
ATS record: 17–16
ATS record over last 10: 4–6
Championship Odds: +2200 (11th)
Round of 64 Spread: -11 vs. Louisiana
The Volunteers traded big wins and difficult losses for the final few months of the season, never winning or losing more than two games in a row since the start of February. Tennessee is just 4–8 ATS during that stretch after a much more promising start to the season. UT did deliver when favored by 10 or plus points with an 11–6 record in such games and it will be a double-digit favorite in Round 1 against Louisiana. One more thing to note about the Vols is they were winless in three tries as an underdog: at Arizona, at Texas A&M and at Auburn.
No. 4 UConn Record and Betting Trends
Record: 25–8
Record over last 10 games: 8–2
ATS record: 21–12
ATS record over last 10: 7–3
Championship Odds: +1600 (T-8th)
Round of 64 Spread: -9.5 vs. Iona
You could pretty much set your clock to a Huskies cover this season. They fell in the Big East tournament semifinal to Marquette as a four-point favorite, but they had covered seven in a row prior to that loss. UConn finished 8–6 as a double-digit favorite on the year and its Round of 64 spread against Iona is just a hair under 10 points. The No. 4 seed in the West Region was favored in all but two games this season (a neutral site game against Alabama and at Creighton) and covered both times as an underdog.
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