2026 NFL Draft Odds: Predicting the Top 10 Picks Ahead of Thursday’s First Round (Jeremiyah Love to Titans)

The NFL Draft is set to begin this Thursday, which means it's time for my final mock draft for the top 10 picks.

Unlike other mock drafts, I don't use insider information or any reports to predict who will be taken by which teams. Instead, I use the betting market. DraftKings Sportsbook has released a plethora of odds for the upcoming draft, so I'm going to break those down to help paint a picture of how the first 10 picks are likely to go.

2026 NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds

Pick No. 1: Fernando Mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders

Fernando Mendoza has remained at -20000 to be the No. 1 overall pick for the past couple of months. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 99.5% chance of being the top pick by the Raiders. With Dante Moore and Trinidad Chambliss going back to school for another year, there's no other logical choice than the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner.

Pick No. 2: Arvell Reese - New York Jets

The debate over who will be selected with the No. 2 pick has been an interesting one. Arvell Reese was a sizable favorite, but the odds shifted all the way to David Bailey being the odds-on favorite. The odds then shifted back to Reese being an overwhelming favorite, and have since evened out a bit more. As of writing this article, Reese is set as the -150 favorite, with an implied probability of 60%.

Pick No. 3: David Bailey - Arizona Cardinals

There has been some recent talk about the Arizona Cardinals selecting Notre Dame running back, Jeremiyah Love with the No. 3 pick, but the betting market is yet to be fully convinced. Based on the odds, the Cardinals are likely to take whichever player between Bailey and Reese that the Jets don't take at No. 2. There is still a chance of Love being selected here, but he's third on the odds list at +270. Francis Mauigoa is the only other realistic option at +1000.

Pick No. 4: Jeremiyah Love - Tennessee Titans

Jeremiyah Love has been the betting favorite to be the No. 4 pick to the Tennessee Titans for the past month, and while the Cardinals rumors have brought his odds down to -135, he's still the betting favorite. If the Cardinals opt for Love, the Titans will likely choose David Bailey (+370) in this spot. If Bailey and Reese are both off the board but the Titans ultimately decide not to take the Notre Dame running back, Sonny Styles is the next name on the list at +475.

Pick No. 5: Sonny Styles - New York Giants

Sonny Styles' odds to be the No. 5 pick have continued to improve over the past few weeks. From +195, to +175, to +165, which is where he sits now. Behind him is a new name that has been rarely discussed as going at No. 5: Jordyn Tyson, the Arizona State wide receiver. There seem to be some reports that the Giants are giving him a hard look at No. 5 overall.

Pick No. 6: Carnell Tate - Cleveland Browns

Things start to get a bit more murky with the Cleveland Browns at the No. 6 spot. Carnell Tate, the wide receiver from Ohio State, is set as the betting favorite at +300, but there are a total of nine names with odds of +1500 or shorter.

Behind Tate are Spencer Fano (+380), Styles (+450), Mauigoa (+600), Monroe Freeling (+800), Tyson (+800), Caleb Downs (+1200), Kadyn Proctor (+1300), and Rueben Bain Jr. (+1500). Not only do the Browns have several options, but they also have plenty of needs at several positions, making it a tough pick to predict.

Pick No. 7: Mansoor Delane - Washington Commanders

Tate (+225), Love (+425), and Styles (+450) are the top three names on the odds list for the Washington Commanders sitting in the seven spot, but all three of those players are favored to go to one of the teams with a pick ahead of the Commanders. That tells us if any of the three fall to Washington, they'll scoop them up without hesitation.

If all three of their top choices are already off the board, Mansoor Delane is the next name on the list. The cornerback from LSU could go a long way in helping a Commanders secondary that was one of the worst in the NFL last season.

Pick No. 8: Jordyn Tyson - New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are hoping they have found their quarterback of the future in Tyler Shough, so now might be the time for them to find a receiver for him to throw to. That's why two wide receivers, Tyson and Tate, are the top two names on their odds list. They'll hope that one of those two receivers will fall to them at No. 8. Delane (+425) and Bain Jr. (+650) are also realistic options for the Saints in this spot.

Pick No. 9: Rueben Bain Jr. - Kansas City Chiefs

No team in the top 10 has shifted in which position they're going to select more than the Chiefs. In the early days after the initial wave of betting odds were released, it looked like the Chiefs were going to take a receiver. Just a couple of weeks ago, that shifted to an offensive lineman likely going to Kansas City in this spot. Now, it's Rueben Bain Jr., the edge-rusher from Miami, who is favored to go to the Chiefs. Delane, the LSU cornerback, is second on the odds list at +450.

Not getting your future Hall-of-Fame quarterback any help on the offensive side of the football is an interesting move, but the Chiefs may not be more concerned with improving their defense.

Pick No. 10: Caleb Downs - New York Giants

The No. 10 pick has recently been sent to the New York Giants from the Cincinnati Bengals in a trade for defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence. That means the Giants now have two top 10 picks in this year's draft. The Ohio State safety, Caleb Downs, is currently the betting favorite at +290. Tyson is second on the odds list at +400. If both those players are taken, the Giants may opt for an offensive lineman. Olaivavega Ioane (+500) and Francis Mauigoa (+600) are the next two names on the list.

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