Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Juan Soto, Ketel Marte, Angels Shortstop)

Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby is less than a week away, but there’s still a way to root for home runs on a nightly basis until then, as every game on Tuesday features a ton of home run props.

While these plays aren’t easy to hit, they are a fun way to responsibly bet on MLB and stay engaged throughout the 162-game season.

Monday’s edition for Daily Dinger yielded a winner, as Shohei Ohtani homered and put together a three-hit game for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While I’m staying away from tonight’s matchup between L.A. and the Colorado Rockies, I do have a pick for an NL West star.

Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte has been one fire as of late, and he’s one of three players to consider in the home run market during Tuesday’s 16-game slate. Even though there are a ton of games to choose from, I’ve targeted players that have impressive numbers against the starting pitchers they are facing on Tuesday night for these three smaller wagers.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the home run props for July 7.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Marte has been on fire as of late, hitting .292 with five home runs and a 1.046 OPS over the last two weeks. He’s now up to 17 home runs this season, including 10 against right-handed pitching.

On Tuesday, he’ll take on a familiar starter in San Diego’s German Marquez, who is making just his second appearance since returning from the injured list. Marquez was dealing with a forearm injury, and he actually came out of the bullpen in his last appearance.

Earlier in his career, Marquez was an All-Star for the Colorado Rockies, and he and Marte have a lengthy history against each other. Marte has gotten the better of the matchup, going 14-for-46 (.304 batting average), with three doubles, two homers and a .940 OPS.

Marquez has allowed eight homers in seven appearances this season, posting a 5.79 ERA in the process. This is a great spot for Marte to keep his hot streak going this month.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+446)

Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto has displayed some impressive power this season, homering 19 times while posting a .781 OPS.

He’s hitting .300 over the last week (five games), and I’m going to take a shot with him at north of 4/1 odds against the Texas Rangers and Jacob deGrom. The former Cy Young award winner has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing 16 home runs in 17 starts despite posting a 3.48 ERA.

Neto has crushed deGrom in his career, and that’s a major reason for this bet. The Angels shortstop is 5-for-10 with two homers and a 1.845 OPS against deGrom. It’s also worth noting that 14 of Neto’s 19 homers have come against right-handed pitching in 2026.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+340)

New York Mets star Juan Soto is having a strong 2026 season, hitting .301 with 19 home runs even though the Mets have been one of the most disappointing teams in MLB.

Soto has dominated right-handed pitching – he’s hitting .302 with a 1.047 OPS – which makes him an intriguing target against Kansas City Royals right Seth Lugo. A former Met, Lugo has a 4.20 ERA this season and has given up 12 home runs in 17 appearances.

While Soto hasn’t been elite against Lugo – he’s 4-for-16 with one home run – the Mets star has homered twice in the last week, hitting .300 during that stretch.

This is a pretty solid price for Soto as well, as he’s often shorter than 3/1 to go deep. Once Lugo exits, Soto will still be in a good spot to go deep, as the Royals are 29th in bullpen ERA (5.21) and have allowed 51 homers in the 2026 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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