Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 2

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs made a statement in Week 1 of the 2026 season, blowing out the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

With reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III (173 rushing yards, two total touchdowns) in the fold, Kansas City has an extremely dynamic offense in 2026, something it desperately missed in last year’s shocking six-win campaign.

Now, the Chiefs have a second primetime game in Week 2, as they’ll take on Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts. Indy was the darling of the AFC in the first several weeks of the 2025 season, but Jones ruptured his Achilles and the team ended up missing the playoffs.

Week 1 of the 2026 season was a tough one for the Colts, as they gave up 41 points to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens while posting the third-worst EPA/Pass in the NFL. Jones may take some time to get comfortable off his torn Achilles, making this team a bit of a long shot in the AFC South.

Oddsmakers seem to think that as well, setting Mahomes and the Chiefs as 6.5-point favorites at home. Kansas City, despite all the struggles in 2025, was 5-3-1 against the spread at home last season, and it easily covered in Week 1 against Denver.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’m here to share some of our favorite plays, including a few props, for this primetime matchup.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Colts vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-120) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Iain MacMillan
Kenneth Walker III OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts (-121) – Peter Dewey
Daniel Jones OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+185) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-120) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, taking the Chiefs to cover at home:

The Chiefs might be all the way back. Bringing back Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator may have been exactly what they needed. Patrick Mahomes looks healthy, and their one-two punch at running back with Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson got off to a fast start to their seasons.

Meanwhile, the Colts' defense looked atrocious against the Ravens, and Daniel Jones' lack of mobility tells me he may still have a nagging injury that's keeping him from using his best weapon.

I think Kansas City runs away with the win in this game.

Kenneth Walker III OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts (-121) – Peter Dewey

Kenneth Walker III won the Super Bowl MVP last season, and he’s continuing to show why in 2026.

The Chiefs running back was the best player on the field in Kansas City’s Week 1 win over Denver, rushing 23 times for 173 yards and a score, adding three receptions for 18 yards and another touchdown through the air. Walker was the bell cow for Kansas City in a blowout win playing 68.1 percent of the offensive snaps and handling the ball in 26 of the 47 plays that he was on the field.

So, I’m buying him to reach 19 carries in Week 2 as the Chiefs look to establish themselves in the run game after it was nonexistent in 2025.

I love this matchup for Walker, since the Baltimore Ravens ran all over the Colts in Week 1. Derrick Henry finished the day with 24 carries for 144 yards and three scores, and Indy finished the game 29th in EPA/Rush.

Daniel Jones OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

In his weekly Player Prop Countdown, MacMillan shares his 10-best props for the week. He’s targeting Colts quarter Daniel Jones on Sunday night for an under-the-radar prop:

Daniel Jones only ran the ball once in the Colts' Week 1 game, but with the result not being what the Colts wanted, I expect him to go back to his bread and butter in Week 2 and start to rely on his legs more. He averages 27.9 rushing yards per game in his career, and while his injury will keep him from reaching those numbers, I think setting his rushing yards total at 8.5 is too big of an overadjustment.

Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+185) – Peter Dewey

I’m not in love with the price for Chiefs star Travis Kelce to score in Week 2, but I did come away from Week 1 encouraged about his role.

The veteran tight end played 71 percent of the team’s snaps, catching three of his five targets for 71 yards. Patrick Mahomes still looked Kelce’s way a good amount on a night where he attempted just 27 passes.

Kelce’s touchdown numbers have fallen off in recent years (five, three and five in the last three seasons), but he still received double-digit red zone targets in 2025. The Chiefs’ pass-catching corps is going to be tough to figure out, but Kelce (+185) has a better price than Rashee Rice (+140) in Week 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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