Best NFL Picks and Predictions (How to Bet Colts vs. Commanders in NFL London Game in Week 4)

Sunday’s NFL action begins in London, as the Indianapolis Colts take on the Washington Commanders with both teams coming off a win.

Washington avoided an 0-3 start with a massive upset win at home over the Seattle Seahawks, and it’s looking to pull off another upset as 3.5-point underdog in this matchup. Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow) is not expected to play in this game, paving the way for Marcus Mariota to make his second start of the season.

The veteran quarterback played well in the win over Seattle, and he now has a pretty interesting matchup against a Colts defense that is just 28th in the NFL in EPA/Play this season.

Daniel Jones and the Colts avoided their own 0-3 start in 2026, knocking off the Houston Texans as home underdogs in Week 3. Indy has played well the last two weeks, forcing overtime in a loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs before winning a defensive battle with Houston in Week 3.

Indy is in play for the top spot in the AFC South, as both Houston and Tennessee are winless through three weeks. Can it handle business in London to get back to .500?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making game predictions, prop picks and more for this standalone matchup. Here’s a compilation of some of our favorites to help you get ready for this Sunday morning clash in Week 4.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Colts vs. Commanders

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington Commanders +3.5 (-112) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Iain MacMillan
Josh Downs 5+ Receptions (-172) – Peter Dewey
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+240) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders +3.5 (-112) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for every game in Week 4 in his Road to 272 column. He’s taking Washington cover as the “home” team in London:

The Commanders likely won't have Jayden Daniels back at quarterback, but Marcus Mariota showed this past week that he's more than just a capable backup. What makes me really like the Commanders in this spot is that their defense has done a great job stopping the run this season. They have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry while ranking third in opponent rush EPA and sixth in opponent rush success rate.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense has been horrific to begin the season, ranking 28th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Indianapolis isn't good enough offensively to overcome a bottom-five defense, so I'm going to take the field-goal-worth of points with the Commanders.

Josh Downs 5+ Receptions (-172) – Peter Dewey

The Colts have a new No. 1 receiver for the time being, as Josh Downs has emerged as the biggest beneficiary with Alec Pierce on injured reserve.

Downs caught seven of his nine targets in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs for 72 yards, and he followed that up with a five-catch performance (on 11 targets) in Week 3 against Houston.

I don’t love yardage props for Downs, as he’s yet to clear 80 yards on the season, finishing with 37, 72 and 77 in the first three weeks. Instead, I’m going to bet on his volume staying high in this passing game.

Downs has back-to-back games with at least five catches, and he’s taking on a Washington defense that is 24th in the NFL in EPA/Play and 26th in EPA/Pass. The Commanders have allowed the fifth-most completed passes in the NFL, and Downs has 20 targets over the last two weeks.

He’s a great bet at his number, and may be worth a sprinkle to finish with six or more catches (+118).

Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+240) – Peter Dewey

Veteran receiver Stefon Diggs has played a key role for the Commanders this season, reeling in 13 of his 22 targets in three games (over seven targets per game) for 135 yards and three scores.

Diggs found the end zone in back-to-back weeks to open the season, but he did not score in the win over Seattle in Week 3. Still, Mariota targeted him seven times, and the four-time Pro Bowler played 59.4 percent of the team’s offensive snaps – his second-highest mark this season.

Indianapolis is just 28th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season, and Mariota threw multiple touchdowns in the Week 3 win against the Seahawks. I think he could have a big game on Sunday, and Diggs has clearly been a preferred option in the red zone.

So far this season, he’s been targeted three times inside the 20-yard-line, turning two of them into touchdowns. At +240, the veteran wideout is worth a look on Sunday morning.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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