Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Commanders vs. Giants on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 10)

Thursday Night Football in Week 10 features a major battle in the NFC East, as the Washington Commanders and Jayden Daniels hit the road to play the New York Giants.

New York (5-2-1) is in first place in the division and in a prime spot to make the playoffs even with starting quarterback Jaxson Dart sidelined with a knee injury. Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy have done enough filling in for the injured quarterback, and the Giants find themselves as favorites on Thursday with McCarthy set to start.

These two teams played one of the wilder games of the 2026 season back in Week 5, as they tied 27-27. Washington (now 2-5-1 this season) had a major blunder at the end of the game, running out the clock before getting a chance to take a game-winning field goal. That came right after a brutal fumble by Giants running back Cam Skattebo with the team driving for a potential field goal to win the game.

Since these teams tied, the winner of Thursday’s matchup will have the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be extremely valuable in the playoff race.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making game picks, player prop selections and more for this NFC East clash. I’ve narrowed things down to four of our favorite plays to give bettors a one-stop shop for Commanders vs. Giants to open the second half of the 2026 NFL regular season.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Giants

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Giants -1.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan
Malik Nabers OVER 5.5 Receptions (-138) – Peter Dewey
Jayden Daniels OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey
Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+190) – Peter Dewey

New York Giants -1.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for every game in Week 10 in his Road to 272 column. He’s targeting New York as a home favorite to cover:

I may have included the New York Giants in last week's edition of my Fraud Rankings, but my biggest issue with them has been their strength of schedule. Will I be betting on them when they take on teams like the Jaguars and 49ers in the coming weeks? Likely not, but they once again have a game against a bad team on Thursday Night Football when they face the Washington Commanders, and much like the majority of the season, I expect them to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

These two teams played to a tie in Week 5 earlier this season, but with it being a road game for the Giants and the fact that they had Jameis Winston at quarterback, I think we can admit they're in a better spot in the rematch. J.J. McCarthy has been surprisingly solid to begin his tenure with the Giants, ranking fifth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected (+5.3%) amongst quarterbacks who have played 60+ snaps this season. It's also no coincidence that over the last three weeks, the Giants have led the league in net yards per play at +1.5.

Meanwhile, the Commanders continue to be a poorly coached team that doesn't thrive in any area, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric.

Malik Nabers OVER 5.5 Receptions (-138) – Peter Dewey

The Giants have played three quarterbacks this season – Dart, Winston and now McCarthy – yet Nabers has remained productive no matter what.

The former first-round pick has 78 targets in eight games, reeling in 53 passes for 648 yards and two scores. While he hasn’t found the end zone a bunch in 2026, Nabers has at least six grabs in five of his eight games and has four straight matchups with at least eight targets.

He had a huge game against Washington earlier this season, pulling down 11 of his 20 targets for 121 yards and a score. The Commanders have struggled against the pass all season long, ranking 18th in the league in passing yards allowed while also allowing the sixth-most passing scores.

I expect Nabers to be heavily involved in the game plan once again on Thursday night.

Jayden Daniels OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Daniels torched the Giants on the ground in Week 5, rushing nine times for 103 yards and two scores. He has just two games this season with over 35.5 rushing yards, but Daniels has really killed the Giants on the ground in his NFL career.

The star quarterback has 44, 35, 68 and 103 rushing yards in his four games against the division rival, and New York has given up the third-most rushing yards to the quarterback position in 2026.

A lot of that is because of Daniels’ big game, but I like this matchup for the Commanders signal-caller on Thursday.

New York has struggled to get home this season, posting the worst pressure rate in the NFL while picking up just 16 sacks in eight games. Even though the Giants are third in the NFL in success rate, they have shown that they can’t keep contain on Daniels, who is one of the best athletes in open space in the league.

Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+190) – Peter Dewey

Giants tight end Isaiah Likely has been a touchdown machine in the 2026 season, reeling in 46 of his 69 targets for 448 yards and six scores. He’s coming off a score in Week 9 against Philly, and Likely has a couple of multi-score games in 2026.

Plus, he’s been a beast when the Giants get near the end zone. In the red zone, Likely has nine targets in 2026, turning those into eight catches and five touchdowns. He hasn’t missed a beat with the New York quarterback changes, finding the end zone in Weeks 1, 5, 6 and 9.

Yes, he scored against Washington in the overtime matchup in Week 5, catching 11 of his 13 targets for 94 yards and two scores. The Commanders have allowed eight touchdown passes to opposing tight ends in 2026 – the second-most in the NFL.

At nearly 2/1, Likely is a great bet to lead this Giants offense once again in Week 10.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets + 3 months of NBA League Pass when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google