Bills vs. Texans Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (Buffalo Favored to Win on Road)

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have a tough test to open the season, as they’ll take on the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud – a team that beat them last season.

Houston had the No. 1 defense in the NFL in 2025, and it held the Bills to 19 points in a 23-19 win that really spurred Houston’s playoff push. Both of these teams ended up in the postseason in 2025, losing in the divisional round to Denver (Buffalo) and New England (Houston).

Oddsmakers have set Allen and Co. as favorites in this matchup, but this is one of the closer spreads on the board. The Bills are just 1.5-point favorites and -118 on the moneyline. Both of these teams are favored to make the playoffs in 2026, so this game could end up meaning a ton for tiebreaker scenarios later on this season.

All season long, the SI Betting team will be sharing our score predictions for these matchups, using the latest odds to help guide these selections.

It’s a fun way to determine how to bet on a game, or take a shot at a long shot correct score bet.

Here’s a breakdown of one of the marquee matchups in Week 1 between the Bills and Texans.

Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Bills -1.5 (-102)
Texans +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Bills: -118
Texans: -102

Total

44.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

This is one of the closer spreads on the board in Week 1, though the Bills have remained road favorites in the lead up to Sunday’s kickoff.

Last season, the Texans beat Buffalo by four points (at home) and these squads combined for just 42 points. Based on the odds, it seems like Vegas expecting a much different result with two new-look offenses in 2026.

Bills vs. Texans Score Prediction

Buffalo is favored in this game, and it clearly has the better quarterback in Allen (the MVP favorite) especially after how CJ Stroud fared in the 2025 playoffs.

There are a lot of ways to look at this game, which has a rather low total for a Week 1 matchup, likely due to the respect for Houston’s defense, which was No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play last season.

SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week – and he’s taking the OVER:

The Bills have added some key offensive pieces this offseason, most notably DJ Moore at wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, they're going to look extremely different with the likes of Matt Milano and Taron Johnson gone, while adding plenty of young pieces. The jury is out on whether or not that's going to make their defense better, but I think it's going to take them a few weeks to hit their stride. Meanwhile, I think the Bills' offense is going to look as explosive as ever.

My Week 1 strategy is going to be to generally fade the common narrative around the assumed best units in the NFL. The Rams fall under that banner, as I wrote about above, but so does the Texans' defense. Yes, they're likely once again going to be an elite defense, but are they good enough to justify a point total this low in a Week 1 game against the MVP favorite?

The Texans' offense is going to be healthy and I expect them to surprise some people and be more effective than some bettors assume.

I don’t mind MacMillan’s thinking, especially since these teams combined for 42 points in last year’s meeting when Allen (two picks) played one of his worst games of the season. Buffalo still managed 19 points in that matchup, and I think it’ll be closer to 24+ in Week 1.

Ultimately, I need to see Stroud produce at a high level to take Houston in this game. I think there’s a chance Buffalo isn’t as good as the odds suggest (No. 2 in the odds to win the Super Bowl), but Houston still has some serious questions on offense.

Last season, the Texans were 19th in EPA/Play, 13th in EPA/Pass, 29th in EPA/Rush and 28th in success rate offensively. Does the David Montgomery addition fix all of those problems?

I doubt it.

I’ll take Allen and Co. to win a close game in Week 1.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 26, Texans 23

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google