Bills vs. Vikings Score Prediction for NFL Week 9 (Buffalo Overvalued on the Road?)

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are favored on the road in Week 9 of the 2026 season against the Minnesota Vikings.

Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings have just one loss – to Detroit in Week 8 – and they’re firmly in the mix to make the playoffs in the NFC despite some shaky quarterback play from Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz this season.

The Vikings are No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play on defense, which has kept them in games all season long. Can they slow down a high-powered Buffalo offense that has the MVP favorite (Allen) leading the way?

Oddsmakers aren’t sold on the Vikes with their quarterback situation (Wentz will start on Monday), but they are 4-3 against the spread in their seven games in 2026.

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Both of these teams enter this game in first place in their respective divisions, but who will come out on top in Week 9? Here’s a breakdown of my score prediction for Monday Night Football.

Bills vs. Vikings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Bills -3.5 (-102)
Vikings +3.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Bills: -180
Vikings: +150

Total

44.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Buffalo opened up as a three-point favorite on the road in this matchup, moving to a 2.5-point favorite early in the week. However, Kyler Murray’s hamstring injury shifted this line towards Buffalo, and it remains favored on Monday night.

Bills vs. Vikings Score Prediction

Each week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan picks every single game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s targeting Minnesota as a home dog in this matchup on Monday night:

Monday night features a fascinating matchup between two teams that are bizarro world versions of each other. The Bills are first in EPA per play but 27th in opponent EPA per play, while the Vikings are 30th in EPA per play and first in opponent EPA per play. In simple terms, we'll find out what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force.

It's interesting how the market values the side that's all offense and no defense quite a bit more, favoring the Bills by 3.5 points on the road, especially when you consider how much the Bills rely on running the football and now they face the best run defense in the NFL.

If the Vikings can stop the run and get something going on offense, this game is going to be a lot closer than some people expect. I'll take the 3.5 points with Minnesota.

The quarterback situation for Minnesota is a concern, but the Vikings’ defense is a top-three unit in the league and has carried it to wins already this season.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has benefitted from a pretty soft schedule and some big injuries (like Lamar Jackson in Week 8) to get off to 6-1.

The defense is awful, ranking 26th in EPA/Play this season as a whole and in the bottom 10 in the league in passing yards allowed. At home, Minnesota’s defense is good enough to at least hang around in this game, even if Josh Allen is the best player on the field.

I’ll take the points in a close Buffalo win.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 20, Vikings 18

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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