Commanders vs. Cowboys Score Prediction for NFL Week 2 (Does Dallas Bounce Back at Home?)

Both the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders lost road division games in Week 1 of the 2026 season, and they’re looking to bounce back in an afternoon matchup in Dallas on Sunday.

The Cowboys and Dak Prescott are favored at home, where they went 4-3-1 in the 2025 campaign. Dallas’ defense is a major concern ahead of Week 2, as it had the worst unit in the NFL in 2025 and allowed the New York Giants to walk all over them in Week 1.

Dallas was 30th in EPA/Play and 31st in success rate on defense in the loss on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the Commanders and Jayden Daniels started slow before covering the spread in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. A costly penalty by Stefon Diggs may have screwed Washington’s chances of forcing overtime, and oddsmakers still view the Commanders as the inferior team in this NFC East clash.

All season long, the SI Betting team plans to predict the final score of NFL games by using the latest odds as a guide. Predicting the final score should help bettors decide on some spread, moneyline and total bets while also giving a chance for an exact score prediction.

Here’s a look at my score prediction for this NFC East showdown on Sunday afternoon.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Commanders +4.5 (-115)
Cowboys -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Commanders: +185
Cowboys: -225

Total

50.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

This line has held steady since opening with Dallas as 4.5-point favorite and the total at 50.5 earlier in the week. Both of these teams lost divisional games in Week 1 on the road.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this matchup in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the OVER:

Shame on me for thinking the Cowboys' defense was better than it was a year ago. They let the New York Giants march up and down the field, and it wasn't just strong play by the Giants. Missed assignments, poor play calling, and a lack of fire were baffling to see in a Week 1 prime-time game against a division rival. They finished the week second-last in defensive success rate and dead last in opponent EPA per play.

The OVER was an automatic bet in Cowboys games last season, and I'm starting to think the same thing may be the case in 2026. We should bet the OVER before they're set in the 52.5 range for any game involving Dallas.

Dallas’ offense wasn’t great in Week 1 against the Giants, though Javonte Williams did find the end zone two times. I think it could bounce back against a Commanders team that allowed three passing scores to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles despite ranking sixth in the league in defensive success rate in Week 1.

I’m not ready to give up on the Cowboys after one game, and they should be in a much better spot to win at home. Dallas was 8-0 at Jerry’s World in 2023 and 4-3-1 at home last season. 2024 was a different story, but Prescott played in just eight games that season.

Washington’s offense took some time to get going in Week 1, and I think it is destined for last place in the NFC East, so I’ll bet on Dallas improving to 1-1.

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Commanders 24

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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