Cowboys vs. Texans Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Houston Get In Win Column?)

The Houston Texans are still looking for their first win of the season as they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

The spreads in all three Texans games have been fewer than three points, and they kept it close against the Bills (36-31) and in Indianapolis (19-17), with a 20-6 home loss to the Bengals in between.

Meanwhile, it’s been an up-and-down season for the Cowboys, who lost to Baltimore in a crazy back-and-forth game in Brazil last week.

This season, the SI Betting team is sharing a final score prediction for every game as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 4 matchup.

Cowboys vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Cowboys +2.5 (-105)
Texans -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Cowboys: +120
Texans: -142

Total

48.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Line Movement: This spread hasn’t moved since the odds opened for this matchup, but there’s been some action on the total. After opening at 46.5 with the over slightly favored, the total is now two points higher at 48.5, but that still might not be high enough.

Cowboys vs. Texans Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

I'm selling some Texans stock this week. They have a few glaring issues, the most obvious being their offense. They rank 24th in EPA per play and 21st in offensive success rate, and they have failed to score much against two defenses that are average at best. They scored just six points against the Bengals and 17 against the Colts. They now get to face an even worse defense this week, but we are sure they'll be able to score enough to keep pace with the Cowboys' high-powered offense.

The other concern is that the Texans' defense isn't what it has been the past two seasons. They're just 18th in opponent EPA per play and 16th in opponent yards per play. Those aren't the dominant numbers they were last year, which is going to put them in a tough spot against the Cowboys' offense that's third in EPA per play.

If the Texans' defense isn't dominant, they have nothing to offer against some of the better teams in the league. Give me the points with Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-105) via BetMGM

I thought that the Texans would have to get going eventually, but that may not be the case given their offensive struggles thus far. If there’s any team they can get going against, though, it might be the Cowboys.

Dallas has allowed the third-most yards in the league at 387 per game, and is tied for the sixth-most points allowed at 27.3

I’m expecting a barnburner in the Lone Star State, following up on the Cowboys’ last-second loss to the Ravens last week. And, once again, I think the Cowboys will end up on the losing side.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 31, Cowboys 27

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