Dolphins vs. Vikings Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Miami Cover in a Defensive Slugfest?)

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a perfect 3-0 start in the 2026 season, and they’re looking to build on that in Week 4 against the winless Miami Dolphins.

Miami has yet to cover the spread this season, and it’s set as a massive underdog on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Minnesota has the No. 27 offense in EPA/Play, but it has the No. 2 defense and ranks No. 1 in defensive success rate.

With star running back De’Von Achane (torn ACL) going down for the season for Miami, the team is going to be in a tough spot to win any games this season. So, it makes sense that the Vikings are double-digit favorites on Sunday.

Can Kyler Murray and Co. bounce back after a poor offensive showing in Week 3 to get to 4-0?

All season long, the SI Betting is sharing final score predictions to help bettors make decisions on their moneyline, spread and total bets. Plus, we may end up hitting an exact score along the way!

Minnesota is eyeing a 4-0 start, and it’s one of the best Survivor selections in Week 4. Here’s my prediction for this battle between two teams trending in different directions.

Dolphins vs. Vikings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Dolphins +10.5 (-112)
Vikings -10.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Dolphins: +455
Vikings: -625

Total

38.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami lost De’Von Achane (torn ACL) for the year, which has caused some massive movement in the total for this game. After opening at 42.5, the total is down to 38.5 ahead of Sunday. These teams have both struggled on offense, ranking 26th (Miami) and 27th (Minnesota) in EPA/Play, and the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league. So, it makes sense that the market is expecting a slug fest with Miami’s best offensive weapon out for the season.

Dolphins vs. Vikings Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game, every week in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Dolphins to cover:

I think now is the time to sell high on the Vikings and buy low, to an extent, on the Dolphins. According to RBSDM.com, the Vikings rank first in defensive luck and fifth in offensive luck, and it makes sense when you consider the fact that they're 3-0 despite being 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.5) and dead last in offensive success rate.

The Dolphins are certainly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the injury to De'Von Achane doesn't help, but 10.5 points is a lot in any NFL game, especially when one side has overperformed based on their underlying metrics.

While I expect the Vikings to win this game and move to 4-0, I do think there are a few things to look at in this game that could lead to a Miami cover.

First off, the total has come down four points since it opened, and the Vikings (27th in EPA/Play on offense) actually have a worse EPA/Play than Miami this season. These teams are also the two worst in the league in success rate.

So, I wouldn't be shocked to see a slugfest, and I don’t think either team is explosive enough to pull away in this matchup. Minnesota has won games on defense alone, and it may have to do that again with Justin Jefferson (ankle) banged up.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 19, Dolphins 13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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