Giants vs. Commanders Odds Jump in Favor of Washington With Jayden Daniels Expected to Start

There's been some early odds movement in a key NFC East matchup in Week 5 of the 2026 season.

After missing back-to-back games with a dislocated elbow, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is expected to return to the lineup on Sunday, leading to oddsmakers setting the Commanders as favorites against the New York Giants. Washington opened the week as a three-point favorite at home against the division-leading Giants, even though it has won just one game this season.

Daniels' return certainly changes Washington's ceiling on offense, especially since veteran Marcus Mariota (knee) was injured in the team's Week 4 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and is expected to miss some time.

The bettimg market seems to agree, as Washington has shifted to a 3.5-point favorite at home with Commanders head coach Dan Quinn saying that he expects Daniels to practice in full this week.

It's interesting to see this line move towards Washington, as DraftKings Sportsbook currently shows that 60 percent of the spread bets and 56 percent of the moneyline bets in this game are actually on the 3-1 Giants. New York has won back-to-back games against Tennessee and Arizona with Jameis Winston filling in for the injured Jaxson Dart.

Clearly, Daniels' expected return is the biggest factor in this game, especially since the Commanders' other option at quarterback is rookie Athan Kaliakmanis. He completed just 15 of his 33 pass attempts for 186 yards, one score and one pick in Week 4 in place of the injured Mariota.

Daniels has played less than two full games this season because of his elbow injury, but multiple reports indicate that he can't make the issue worse this season. So, even though Daniels may need surgery in the offseason, it appears the former No. 2 overall pick will play through the issue for as long as he can.

This season, Daniels has completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 260 yards. He looked like his 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year self against Dallas in Week 2 before going down, completing 11 of 17 passes against for 96 yards and a score.

It'll be interesting to see if this line moves back towards New York with the majority of the bets coming in on the Giants early in the week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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