Jets vs. Patriots Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Can New England Cover TD Spread?)

The New England Patriots are looking to make it three wins in a row when they host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots upset the Bills in Buffalo two weeks ago then put up 45 points in a blowout win against the Raiders last week.

The Jets are also feeling good after a 17-12 win against the Browns. They had lost their previous three contests after opening the season with a victory in Tennessee.

New England has won three straight meetings against the Jets, including 42-10 and 27-14 last year.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 6 matchup with a final score prediction.

Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Jets +7.5 (-115)
Patriots -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Jets: +260
Patriots: -325

Total

43.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Line Movement: The spread hasn’t moved since the odds opened for this matchup, but the total has gone down a point from 44.5 to 43.5.

Jets vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

The Jets may not be as bad as I thought they'd be this season. They aren't good, but they're ranked around the middle of the pack in the NFL across many metrics, including 20th in EPA per play, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 14th in net yards per play (+0.2).

Geno Smith has also been interesting this season. He hasn't been throwing the ball all over the field and racking up yards, but he's been accurate, ranking 10th in completion percentage over expected, and he has yet to throw an interception. Efficient play from your quarterback goes a long way in covering spreads as an underdog.

The Patriots are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders last week, but let's not pretend that all of their early-season problems have been solved. I'm not sure I'm ready to back them to cover a 7.5-point spread against a division rival this week.

Pick: Jets +7.5 (-115) via FanDuel

I think I disagree with MacMillan on this one. The Patriots have put up two dominating wins in their first two home games. They beat the Steelers 20-3 as -4.5 favorites in Week 2 and covered as just -3.5 favorites in the blowout last week.

The Jets may be able to keep this from being a complete blowout, but I think the Patriots can pull away at home. New York has failed to cover in both of its road losses.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 17

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