Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Monday, July 13

A rough 2026 season has gotten worse for the Phoenix Mercury, as they dropped a third game in a row on Saturday against the Las Vegas Aces, losing by 48 points.

Now, the Mercury have a quick turnaround on Monday against another one of the best teams in the WNBA in the Minnesota Lynx (17-6). Minnesota is an impressive 10-1 against the Western Conference this season and is coming off a big win over New York in its last game.

Olivia Miles (off the injury report) and Napheesa Collier (out) have missed games for the Lynx as of late, but Miles returned to action against the New York Liberty, dropping 23 points.

Oddsmakers have the Lynx favored by double digits in this matchup, but can they cover the spread?

The first two meetings between these teams were very different, as the Lynx won the first one by four and the second one by 34.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Monday’s showdown.

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +12.5 (-112)
Lynx -12.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Mercury: +500
Lynx: -700

Total

168.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

Date: Monday, July 13
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock, Merc+, NBCSN, Victory+, Arizona’s Family 3TV
Mercury record: 8-16
Lynx record: 17-6

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- probable
Natasha Mack -- out

Lynx Injury Report

Emma Cechova -- out
Napheesa Collier -- out

Mercury vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Alyssa Thomas UNDER 8.5 Assists (-131)

Alyssa Thomas is averaging 7.9 assists per game for the Mercury this season, so I’m surprised to see this prop all the way up at 8.5 against Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defense.

The Lynx are allowing the fourth-fewest assists per game in the WNBA this season, and Thomas has failed to clear this prop in both meetings against them, tallying eight and five dimes.

The six-time All-Star has nine or more assists in 10 of her 22 games in the 2026 campaign, but I think she’s a fade candidate with the Mercury coming off three straight losses, including an embarrassing offensive showing against Las Vegas.

Thomas had just one assist in that game, and she’s failed to clear this line in four of her last five contests.

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Lynx are a great bet to win at home:

Phoenix is 0-2 against the Lynx this season, losing by four back in May and 34 in the last meeting between these teams.

The Mercury are coming off an embarrassing 48-point loss at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, dropping them to 8-16 in the 2026 season.

Simply put, this Phoenix team looks nothing like the one that made the WNBA Finals in the 2026 season. The Mercury rank in the bottom five in the W in both offensive and defensive rating, and they’re now 11th in net rating (minus-4.9) after the loss to Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, the Lynx are 17-6 despite a major injury to Napheesa Collier and have a league-best plus-10.8 net rating. Minnesota is only 5-4 against the spread when favored at home this season, but it remains a league-best 16-7 against the spread overall.

I simply cannot trust the Mercury against the top teams in the league, and they’re on a three-game skid after winning four out of five in late June/early July.

Pick: Lynx -12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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