Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for ALCS Game 3 and NLCS Game 4)

We have a rare Championship Series game in the afternoon with ALCS Game 3 between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians being moved up to 1 p.m. EST due to the weather forecast in Ohio.

That will be a nice appetizer before NLCS Game 4 at 8 p.m. as the Milwaukee Brewers look to complete the sweep against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I have a pick and a prop for both games on Thursday night in my MLB best bets.

Let’s get right into the MLB best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Thursday, Oct. 15.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Oct. 15

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Rays vs. Guardians 1st 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115)
Gavin Williams OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+111) vs. Rays
Dodgers (-161) vs. Brewers
Tyler Glasnow OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-155) / OVER 6.5 (+131)

Rays vs. Guardians 1st 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115)

I explained in the ALCS Game 3 betting preview why I like the pitchers to keep the runs to a premium early in the contest:

This should be another good pitcher’s duel in the ALCS.

Griffin Jax found new life as nearly a full-time starter this season after primarily pitching out of the bullpen with his previous teams. He was particularly strong in the first five innings, allowing 33 earned runs in 101.2 innings (2.92) in the first five innings this year.

Gavin Williams was a bit more hittable in the first five innings in the regular season (64 ER in 142.3 IP, 4.01 ERA), but has been great so far in the playoffs.

I also think the early start could benefit the starting pitchers, as the bats could take a bit to get going. That’s been the case in the first two games of the series, anyway, with two runs in the first five innings of Game 1 and three in Game 2.

Gavin Williams OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+111) vs. Rays

I also broke down why I’m backing Gavin Williams in ALCS Game 3:

Gavin Williams has 24 strikeouts in 11.2 innings this postseason, including 23 strikeouts in 10.2 innings in his two starts. Of course, all of that action came against the White Sox, but the Guardians starter is locked in as he makes his ALCS debut.

The Rays only struck out at a 19.1% rate against right-handed pitchers on the season, but that ballooned up to 27.6% in the last 30 days. Williams made one start against Tampa Bay this year, racking up nine strikeouts in 7.2 innings back in April.

After getting 11 and 12 strikeouts in his first two starts, I’ll happily take OVER 6.5 at plus odds on Thursday afternoon.

Dodgers (-161) vs. Brewers

I explained in the NLCS Game 4 betting preview why I like the Dodgers to stay alive:

The Brewers do seem like a team of destiny, but that destiny might not necessarily be a sweep despite being on the other end of the brooms last year.

Tyler Glasnow has provided a boost to the Dodgers’ rotation since returning from injury, and he found success against the Brewers in last year’s NLCS.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has yet to name a starter for Game 4, and the Brewers may be smart to cobble together what they can with a bullpen game. That’d leave Jacob Misiorowski on full rest for Game 5 on Friday night, if needed.

Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers’ lineup has to come alive at some point, right? They’re batting just .188 this postseason, but do have eight home runs.

The Dodgers were -175 favorites last night but just -161 tonight despite arguably a better pitching advantage. I’ll back the home team with their backs against the wall.

Tyler Glasnow OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-155) / OVER 6.5 (+131)

I also broke down why I’m taking Tyler Glasnow to go OVER his strikeout prop in NLCS Game 4:

Tyler Glasnow threw five strikeouts in his 4.2 innings against the Braves in the NLDS. That game was in Atlanta, though, and he’s been a bit better at home this season, at least in the strikeout department.

Glasnow had 51 strikeouts in 36 innings at home as opposed to 47 strikeouts in 38 innings on the road. He went OVER 5.5 strikeouts in all six starts at Dodger Stadium, with eight, 10, and 11 punchouts in his three home outings since returning from the injured list.

Glasnow struck out eight Brewers batters in 5.2 innings in last year’s NLCS, and Milwaukee is striking out at a 28.7% rate in the last 30 days.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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