Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Guardians vs. Rays, Freddy Peralta in ALCS Game 2)

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series on Tuesday night.

The Guardians handed the Rays their first loss of the playoffs with a 7-3 upset win on Monday night. Cleveland is now red-hot after dropping its first two games to the White Sox.

This series takes center stage on Tuesday as the lone game on the docket.

I have a pick and a prop for Guardians vs. Rays in ALCS Game 2 on Tuesday night.

Let’s get right into the MLB best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Tuesday, Oct. 13.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, Oct. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Guardians at Rays UNDER 7 (-115)
Freddy Peralta OVER 13.5 Outs (-129)

Guardians at Rays UNDER 7 (-115)

I explained in the ALCS Game 2 betting preview why I’m taking the UNDER tonight:

It looked like there wouldn't be much scoring in Game 1 as the Tampa Bay Rays held a 2-0 lead through five innings. However, the Guardians scored one in the sixth and seventh, two in the eighth, and three in the ninth inning to put the game away, and to fly over the total.

I’m not expecting another high-scoring game this time around.

Of the six matchups in the regular season, only one had more than five runs. In fact, outside of the Rays’ 11-3 win on July 24, these teams combined for 14 runs in their other five games.

Parker Messick didn’t look great against the White Sox, but he was still able to limit some damage. He did start in both regular-season series against the Rays, allowing one run in each outing of 5.2 innings and 6.2 innings with a total of nine hits, two walks, and 15 strikeouts.

It’ll be Freddy Peralta on the other side. The former Brewers ace struggled with the Mets, but the Rays did what they’re known to do and helped get the pitcher back on track. He was 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts in Tampa Bay, but a pristine 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA (3 ER in 34 IP) across his final six regular-season starts.

This should be a good pitching matchup and a lower-scoring game in Tampa Bay.

Freddy Peralta OVER 13.5 Outs (-129)

I also broke down why I’m backing Freddy Peralta to complete not even five innings on the mound:

Let’s first address Freddy Peralta’s first start this postseason as he only went 4.2 innings against the Yankees. Not only does that still cash this prop, but he was only pulled due to the red-hot Ben Rice coming up with two men on base and two outs. I don’t see the Guardians putting him in a similar situation.

Peralta completed at least five innings in his final seven starts of the regular season, and recorded OVER 13.5 outs in his last nine starts with the Rays. The only time the Rays pulled him before recording 13.5 outs was in his team debut at Coors Field.

I’m surprised that this line is set so low, and would still take the OVER 14.5 outs if there is line movement before first pitch.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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