Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Timberwolves-Rockets, Tyrese Maxey)

The NBA season took a one-day break for Election Day, but another massive slate of games is set for Wednesday, Nov. 4, as 28 of the 30 teams will be in action.

Monday’s 15-game lineup was a positive one when it came to my picks in Peter’s Points, as all the spread picks and a Steph Curry prop hit for a 4-2 showing. That pushed this season’s record to 22-18 for a slight profit through the first two weeks of the season.

So, why not keep things rolling on Wednesday?

A 14-game slate offers a ton of options in the betting market, and we’ve seen some changes in the futures market as well through two weeks with Luka Doncic moving into the top spot in the odds to win the NBA’s MVP award.

He’s back in action on Wednesday against the Sacramento Kings, and is the subject of today’s Dew’s Review.

Dew’s Review: Doncic had yet another 40-point game on Monday night, and he’s now the favorite to win the league’s MVP award. Doncic has been unstoppable in his first seven games of the 2026-27 season, averaging 38.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 42.7 percent from 3-point range. This may be his best shot to win the MVP in his career, and the Los Angeles Lakers in the mix for a top-three seed in the West and this roster is built around Doncic as the offensive hub. He’s leading the league in shots per game, free-throw attempts per game and 3-point attempts per game.

Peter’s Point: There are a plethora of great games on Wednesday, but I’m focusing on the later part of the slate with Cooper Flagg taking on Victor Wembanyama on ESPN. These are arguably the two best young players in the league, and Flagg is looking to bounce back from an awful shooting showing on Monday in a loss to the Kings. Meanwhile, Wemby and the San Antonio Spurs have won five straight games after an 0-2 start and look like title contenders for the second season in a row. Basketball in the Western Conference could run through Texas for quite some time, especially with the Houston Rockets (7-1) off to a fast start this season.

It’s never easy to narrow things down to a couple picks in the NBA, especially when there are 28 teams to bet on. Still, I’ve decided on seven plays for Nov. 4, including a pick for New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson.

Let’s keep things in the green after a solid first two weeks of the season!

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 22-18 (+0.80 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1643-1546-27 (+30.98 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-117)
Darryn Peterson OVER 13.5 Points (-124)
Houston Rockets -8.5 (-104) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers-Sacramento Kings OVER 234.5 (-110)
Washington Wizards Moneyline (+114) vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tyrese Maxey OVER 23.5 Points (-117)
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+111)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-117)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the Thunder on his back on Monday night, scoring 43 points on 35 shots for his third game this season with 32 or more points.

SGA is averaging 28.4 points per game this season, but he’s averaged at least 30 per game in each of his last four completed seasons. After Monday’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, SGA is taking 23.4 shots per game, and I expect that to continue with Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren all sidelined.

The Cavs couldn’t slow down SGA on Monday in a home game, and now they go on the road without two of their best defenders in Jaylon Tyson and Peyton Watson. I expect SGA to hunt James Harden and Donovan Mitchell all night, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pushes 35-plus points on Wednesday.

Darryn Peterson OVER 13.5 Points (-124)

Utah Jazz rookie Darryn Peterson is off to a slow start this season, averaging 13.4 points per game while shooting 36.3 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from 3. The 3-point shot has been impressive, and I still believe in Peterson as the best pure scorer in this draft class.

The No. 2 overall pick has scored 14 or more points in five of his seven games, including four in a row. He’s taken at least 12 shots in six straight contests, so the usage should be there for him with Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) sidelined.

While the New Orleans Pelicans are 15th in the league in defensive rating this season, I’m buying Peterson at this price as he continues to get comfortable at the NBA level.

Houston Rockets -8.5 (-104) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards’ injury has flipped what should have been an awesome Western Conference battle on Wednesday night.

Houston has the best net rating in the NBA this season, and it is scoring the ball at a high rate, ranking No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 6 in points per game.

While the Timberwolves’ season-long numbers are still strong – fourth in net rating, eighth in points per game – this team isn’t nearly as dangerous without Edwards in the lineup.

In fact, the Wolves have lost on the road to San Antonio by 10 and at home against Golden State by five without the All-NBA guard. The team’s two wins in his absence were both against one-win teams in the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks.

I can’t put too much stock into those performances, and the Timberwolves were already a thin team entering the season, especially with Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) sidelined. The guard spot doesn’t have a ton of depth after LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu, and I think the Wolves will struggle against an elite Houston defense (sixth in defensive rating) that features Amen Thompson, Marcus Smart and Tari Eason.

I don’t mind laying the points with the Rockets, who are 7-1 against the spread in their eight games.

Los Angeles Lakers-Sacramento Kings OVER 234.5 (-110)

Could we see a high-scoring affair in Sacramento?

The Lakers are the No. 1 offense in the league, and Luka Doncic should have another huge game against a Kings team that is in the bottom three in the league in defensive rating.

Still, I’d rather take the OVER in this game than lay the points with the Lakers on the road. L.A. has been really bad with Doncic off the floor, and it had to bring the starters back into Sunday’s win over Toronto after J.J. Redick attempted to sit them down for the final few minutes with a double-digit lead.

The OVER has hit in five of the Kings’ seven games and five of the Lakers’ eight games with L.A. putting up 239 or more points in five matchups.

The Kings aren’t an efficient offense (25th in offensive rating), but they do love to push the tempo, ranking fifth in pace this season. An uptempo game is right where the Lakers want to be with Doncic running red hot over the last week.

Washington Wizards Moneyline (+114) vs. Atlanta Hawks

I’m targeting an upset pick for Wednesday’s action in the Southeast Division.

There was hope that the Wizards would be able to make the play-in tournament in the East this season, and through the first two weeks, they look like a potential playoff team.

Washington currently has some impressive season-long numbers, especially on defense:

13th in net rating (plus-2.2)
8th in defensive rating
5th in opponent points per game
18th in offensive rating
18th in effective field goal percentage

Atlanta is 15th in the league in net rating, and it has struggled against quality competition, winning games against Orlando, Charlotte and a short-handed Indiana team. In fact, the Hawks’ only win against an over .500 team was against the 4-3 Cavaliers.

The Wizards have the offensive talent to be a playoff team in the East with Anthony Davis, Trae Young and AJ Dybantsa all healthy, and the Hawks have not looked sharp in their last two games, getting blown out by New Orleans before barely beating a Pacers team that had six active players.

Tyrese Maxey OVER 23.5 Points (-117)

Philadelphia 76ers star Tyrese Maxey is averaging 29.1 points per game this season while shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 33.9 percent from beyond the arc.

The Sixers have just one loss heading into a tough matchup with the Detroit Pistons – the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Detroit beat Philly earlier this season, yet Maxey scored 29 points on 24 shots.

So far this season, the All-NBA guard has at least 26 points in every game, so this line feels like a gift, even against a tough Pistons defense. The Sixers have all five players in their starting lineup active tonight, but that hasn’t hurt Maxey’s shot attempts.

He’s averaging 20.4 field goal attempts per game, taking at least 18 in all but one matchup. I’ll gladly take him at this price since he’s pushing 30 points per game for the season.

Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+111)

New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson hasn’t gotten off to a dominant start after winning Finals MVP, averaging 24.6 points per game while shooting just under 40 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3.

Brunson had offseason wrist surgery, so he’s still working himself back into peak shape early in the 2026-27 season. Still, I’m buying him in the 3-point prop market against the Chicago Bulls.

The All-NBA guard had a season-high 38 points (shooting 6-for-10 from 3) against Chicago last week, and Brunson has made three or more shots from deep in three straight games, attempting at least 10 3-pointers in each of those contests.

Overall, the Knicks star is averaging 7.3 3-point attempts per game and he’s facing a defense that is 24th in opponent 3s made per game and 27th in opponent 3-point percentage. Brunson is a great bet at plus money to torch this rebuilding Bulls team for the second time this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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