Patriots vs. Bears Score Prediction for NFL Week 7 (Bet on Chicago to Win at Home on Thursday)

Two of the top quarterbacks from the 2024 NFL Draft are set to face off on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as Caleb Williams the Chicago Bears host the New England Patriots and Drake Maye.

Williams returned from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury in Week 6, and he was on fire against the Atlanta Falcons in a Chicago win. The former No. 1 overall pick completed 30 of his 36 pass attempts for 305 yards and a score while Chicago scored 31 points. The Bears are up to 90 points in the two games that Williams has started – and finished – in the 2026 season.

Meanwhile, the Patriots won a third straight game on Sunday to improve to 4-2, knocking off the New York Jets in an AFC East clash. With the Buffalo Bills on a bye in Week 7, the Patriots have a chance to gain some ground in the division with a win.

Oddsmakers have set the Bears as favorites at home on Thursday night, and Ben Johnson’s group needs every win they can get with every team in the NFC North over .500 through the first six weeks. Can they handle a Patriots team that is dealing with a ton of injuries ahead of Week 7?

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final score of NFL games as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread, total and moneyline bets. And, I’d love to get an exact score correct along the way, so why not start on Thursday?

The Bears and Patriots are both contenders to make the playoffs, but I believe the home team has the edge in this primetime clash.

Patriots vs. Bears Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots +3 (-118)
Bears -3 (-102)

Moneyline

Patriots: +124
Bears: -148

Total

50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

After opening as 2.5-point favorites in this game, the Bears have climbed to field-goal favorites at home in Week 7.

Chicago has been one of the best offenses in the league when Caleb Williams plays, and the Patriots are coming into this game with a ton of injuries, especially on their offensive line. That could have forced the move in this game, though it’s possible the line will change ahead of kickoff.

Patriots vs. Bears Score Prediction

This week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this matchup in his Road to 272 column, where he picks every game of the NFL season. He’s taking the UNDER even with two star quarterbacks facing off:

Unless I'm missing something, I'm not quite sure why the total for this game is in the 50s. Sure, the Bears' offense is much more explosive with Caleb Williams at quarterback, but even with that being the case, these two offenses rank 12th and 14th in EPA per play this season and seventh and 12th in success rate. A high total would make sense if the two defenses in this game were bad, but they rank in the top half of the league in most metrics. In fact, the Bears' defense comes into this game ranking fourth in opponent success rate.

The Patriots' offense is also dealing with some injuries. A.J. Brown is questionable, and Romeo Doubs is on IR. Their run game can't be relied on to help out the injuries at wide receiver, as it's been largely ineffective all season.

I'll bet the UNDER on Thursday Night Football for the second straight week.

I don’t mind the UNDER bet with the Patriots banged up across the board, and I’m higher on this Bears team than most after they started this season 4-2 (2-0 in the two games that Williams has started and finished).

The Bears enter this week in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play and success rate on defense, and these teams are pretty equal in EPA/Play on offense even though Williams has missed three games. In the two matchups where Williams started and finished the game, the Bears have scored 90 points.

Maybe they don’t cross 30 in this game, but I do think they’ll do enough to win.

Final Score Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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