Patriots vs. Seahawks Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (Can New England Cover in Super Bowl rematch?)

Using the latest betting odds and analysis to predict the final score of the New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks matchup in Week 1 of the NFL season.

The New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye are underdogs in Week 1. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 NFL season is finally upon us, and things open up with a marquee matchup, as the Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl LX. 

Seattle and Sam Darnold dominated the Super Bowl last season, as Drake Maye and the New England offense struggled to get much going early and Kenneth Walker III ran all over the Patriots defense on his way to the Super Bowl MVP.

Well, Walker is now in Kansas City and both of these teams have some new faces, with A.J. Brown being the biggest name of all joining New England. 

Oddsmakers have set Seattle as a favorite at home in this season opener with a very similar line to the one we saw in the Super Bowl. So, how should we bet on it? 

One of the most exciting ways to bet on any NFL game is taking the spread or total, and each year the SI Betting team conducts an exciting exercise where we predict the score of games, using the odds as a guide. 

Here’s where I’ve landed on Wednesday night, with oddsmakers expecting a close game. 

Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Patriots +3.5 (-118)
• Seahawks -3.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Patriots: +152
• Seahawks: -180

Total

• 44.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Depending on the sportsbook, the Patriots are 3.5-point or three-point underdogs in Week 1. Some books have New England as a 3-point dog but at plus money for this road date with Seattle.

There are a couple of key trends to know when it comes to this game: 

• The Seahawks were 15-5 against the spread last season – the best record in the NFL.
• The Patriots were 13-7-1 against the spread last season under Mike Vrabel.
• The Seahawks are 8-11 against the spread at home under Mike Macdonald. 
• The Seahawks are 11-8 straight up at home under Mike Macdonald.
• The Patriots were 7-2 against the spread on the road in the 2025 season.

Seattle has been money on the road under Mike Macdonald, but there are some concerns with this team covering the spread at home. Does that open the door for Drake Maye and Co. to keep this game closer than Super Bowl LX? 

Patriots vs. Seahawks Score Prediction

The SI Betting team is on opposite sides for this matchup, which could make for an interesting season opener.

Senior editor Iain MacMillan shared in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game throughout the NFL season – why he likes Seattle to win by four or more at home: 

I see absolutely no reason why we shouldn't ride with the defending Super Bowl champions in this game. I was big on the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, as I felt that these two teams weren't in the same tier, and I was proven right. Now, seven months later, I don't think enough has changed between the two teams for me to think things will be any different, especially with this now being a home game for the Seahawks.

The Patriots had a historically easy schedule last season and went 7-3 in one-score games. They had things break their way in the postseason, playing nothing but injured teams throughout the AFC side of the bracket. Now, they have a much tougher schedule, and it will be hard for them to replicate the same success in close games.

The Patriots are certainly better at wide receiver, but they have to face arguably the best defense in the NFL in this game. Will Campbell was overpowered in the Super Bowl, and I'm not so sure he's going to have a better game in the rematch.

MacMillan makes some terrific points, and I think Seattle ends up winning this matchup, but I can’t pass up a chance to get the Patriots with this spread through the key number of 3. I shared why in our Patriots vs. Seahawks betting preview on Monday: 

There is one concern I have with this Seattle team. 

It has struggled against the spread at home under Macdonald (8-11), and a new playcaller on offense could be something to watch early in the season to see just how this offense meshes. The Seahawks are still one of my favorite teams in the league this season (they’re No. 2 in my latest Power Rankings), but I wouldn’t be shocked if New England is able to hang around.

After all, the Patriots were one of two teams in the NFL (Denver was the other) to rank in the top 10 in the league in both EPA/Play on offense and defense in 2025.

Seattle did lose some key players in the offseason, including the Super Bowl MVP, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if New England kept this game within a possession on Wednesday. After all, the Patriots are 7-2 against the spread on the road in 2025. 

The Seahawks win, but fans get a close game to open the 2026 season. 

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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