Raiders vs. Patriots Score Prediction for NFL Week 5 (Can New England Cover At Home?)

The New England Patriots are looking to build on their upset win in Buffalo when they host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon.

That was a much-needed bounceback effort from the Pats, who lost 35-6 in Jacksonville the week prior.

On the other hand, the Raiders suffered their first loss of the season last week. After beating the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints to begin the season, Las Vegas lost 30-27 at home to the Chiefs.

Las Vegas has won three straight meetings against the Patriots, including 20-13 last September.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 5 matchup with a final score prediction.

Raiders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Raiders +3.5 (-109)
Patriots -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Raiders: +164
Patriots: -198

Total

45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Line Movement: Neither the spread nor total has moved since the odds opened for this game. The most notable change is the under now at -115 after opening at -110.

Raiders vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

There's no denying the Raiders have earned their record to begin their season; their metrics have been strong, and they're 3-1 on the year, but with that being said, I think we can sell high on them after they've covered the spread each week. Before the season began, the Patriots were 8.5-point favorites in this game on the lookahead line. Now, the line is down to 3.5. Are we putting enough stock into a four-game sample size to move the line five whole points? I'm not quite convinced of that.

The Patriots had some poor luck in the first few weeks, and despite the slow start, their defense has still played well, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. That's above the Raiders' defense in that metric, which comes in at 11th.

A major concern I have about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means that, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward? I certainly don't.

I'll lay the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

That callback to the lookahead line being -8.5 is a great pull by MacMillan, and one that we shouldn’t take lightly. Sure, the Raiders have had a hot start, and the Patriots have yet to find their footing, but New England is still the much better team.

The Raiders’ road wins this season came against the Chargers and Saints, while the Patriots beat the Steelers 20-3 in their lone home game thus far. I think New England can string two wins together and likely cover the spread in the process.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Raiders 13

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