Rays vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Sept. 27

A four-game losing streak has put the Philadelphia Phillies’ playoff hopes on the line in the final game of the regular season against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Philly holds a one-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL wild card race, but the D-Backs own the tiebreaker. So, an Arizona win and a Philly loss would eliminate Bryce Harper and Co. from the postseason.

Still, the Phillies control their own destiny, as a win would get them into the final wild card spot and set up a playoff date with the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday.

The Phillies are favored at home in their series finale against the Rays, who have already clinched the best record in the American League. Nick Martinez (2.94 ERA) is on the mound for the Rays against Philly’s Zack Wheeler (3.06 ERA), who will have to start this game since the Phils aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot.

Originally, it was expected that Philly would save Wheeler for Game 1 of the wild card round if it had clinched earlier in the week.

Let’s dive into the odds, a prop to bet and my prediction for this massive matchup on Sunday afternoon.

Rays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-168)
Phillies -1.5 (+139)

Moneyline

Rays: +140
Phillies: -170

Total

6.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Rays vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Nick Martinez (15-5, 2.94 ERA)
Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (13-5, 3.06 ERA)

Rays vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Rays.TV
Rays record: 98-63
Phillies record: 87-74

Rays vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+447)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why I’m betting on Harper having another big moment for the Phils:

The Phillies can get into the playoffs with a win on Sunday – or an Arizona loss – and star Bryce Harper may be the perfect man to rely on in this matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Harper has a flair for the dramatic from his time in Philly, hitting some clutch playoff home runs, even though the team has been unable to win a World Series in his tenure. He’s been slumping a bit to end the regular season, hitting .250 without a home run in his last 12 games.

Still, I don’t mind Harper at this price against Rays righty Nick Martinez, who has allowed 22 home runs in 30 outings in 2026. Harper has crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting .300 with 24 home runs and a .996 OPS.

He’s also 2-for-5 with a home run and a 1.400 OPS against Martinez in his career. With so much at stake for the Phillies, I don’t mind the former MVP at this price on Sunday.

Rays vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have thrived with these starters on the mound, with the Rays going 22-8 and the Phillies going 19-8.

I lean with Philly to win this game, as Wheeler’s advanced numbers are way better in 2026. The right-hander has an expected ERA in the 91st percentile and an expected BAA in the 88th percentile in the 2026 campaign. Meanwhile, Martinez sits in the 57th percentile in expected ERA and just the 20th percentile in expected BAA.

So, the Rays right-hander may be due for some regression against a lefty-heavy offense.

That being said, I’m going to take the cushion of the Rays on the run line on Sunday. Philly is backing into the playoffs even if it does clinch, and the low total in this game (6.5) suggests that we could see a close matchup.

Plus, Tampa Bay is 29-17 on the run line as a dog this season.

Philly may win this game – and I’d bet on Wheeler to make it happen – but I’d much rather get the 1.5-run cushion at -168 than taking the Phils outright at -170.

Pick: Rays +1.5 (-168 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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