Reds vs. Rays Prediction, Odds: Bet on Cincinnati to Extend Winning Streak to Five on Tuesday

The Reds are looking to win a fifth game in a row.

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds just keep on winning! 

A strong start from Rhett Lowder on Monday led the Reds to their fourth win in a row in their series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays, and they have a 1.5-game cushion atop the NL Central heading into Tuesday’s Game 2. 

Tampa Bay is second in the AL East at this point in the 2026 season, but it has a negative run differential after the five-run loss on Monday. The Rays will look to right the ship with lefty Steven Matz (3.80 ERA) on the mound on Tuesday, as he’s led Tampa Bay to a 4-0 record in as many starts. 

Meanwhile, the Reds will counter with youngster Chase Burns, who has lit up the radar gun across four starts, allowing one run or less in three of them. 

Oddsmakers have the Reds as slight favorites on the road, but can they extend this streak?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague battle. 

Reds vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Reds -1.5 (+144)
• Rays +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

• Reds: -115
• Rays: -105

Total

• 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Reds vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Cincinnati: Chase Burns (1-1, 2.42 ERA)
• Tampa Bay: Steven Matz (3-0, 3.80 ERA)

Reds vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, April 21
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• How to Watch (TV): Rays.TV/Reds.TV
• Reds record: 15-8
• Rays record: 12-10

Reds vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Reds Best MLB Prop Bet

• Chase Burns UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Chase Burns has electric stuff – especially his fastball – but the Rays are No. 2 in MLB in strikeouts per game (7.27) this season, and they average just 6.29 K’s per game at home.

That makes this a tough matchup for the Reds youngster, who has fallen short of this prop in back-to-back starts. Burns has 22 K’s in 22.1 innings of work, ranking in the 61st percentile in strikeout percentage and the 82nd percentile in whiff percentage.

Still, he’s only cleared this line against Texas (27th in K’s per game) and Pittsburgh (21st in K’s per game) in the 2026 season. Burns fell short against San Francisco (fourth in K’s per game) in his last start.

Reds vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Can the Reds continue their winning ways tonight? In today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI Betting, I shared why the Reds are worth a look as small favorites on the road: 

The Cincinnati Reds are on fire right now, winning four games in a row and seven of their last 10 to move into first place in the NL Central standings.

The most impressive part of Cincy’s start to the season may be its road record, as the Reds are 9-2 on the road and looking to win Game 2 of their early-week series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. 

This game is basically set as a pick’em – Cincy is a slight favorite – and that makes this a perfect time to jump on the Reds with Chase Burns making his fifth start of the year. The hard-throwing right-hander has given up one or fewer runs in three of his outings this season, posting a 2.42 ERA. 

While Cincy is just 2-2 in Burns’ starts, the youngster has some impressive advanced numbers, ranking in the 64th percentile in expected batting average against and the 82nd percentile in whiff percentage while posting an expected ERA of 3.86.

He has much better advanced numbers than Tampa Bay starter Steven Matz, who is in the 26th percentile in expected batting average against and the 38th percentile in expected ERA (4.24) this season. 

Matz has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his April starts, but the bullpen behind him is extremely shaky. The Rays have the sixth-worst bullpen ERA (5.28) in MLB while the Reds are No. 1 in that ranking (2.23 ERA). 

Since Burns can easily match Matz in the first few frames, I trust the Reds to win this game in the later innings. Tampa Bay is 12-10 to start this season, but it has a minus-11 run differential, which could be a sign that it’s going to regress in the coming weeks and months.  

Pick: Reds Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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