Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Every Game 1 on Sunday

Sunday’s NBA Playoff action features the final four Game 1 matchups in the first round, where all four teams that advance via the play-in tournament are set as heavy underdogs on the road:

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (-12.5)
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-14.5)
Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons (-8.5)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs (-10.5)

Yesterday was the first day of playoff action in my new Road to the NBA Finals challenge, and it was a 2-for-4 showing with LeBron James’ assists prop and the New York Knicks-Atlanta Hawks matchup going UNDER as the two winners.

Today, I’m back with four more plays, including player props for both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum.

When it comes to this challenge, the rules are simple:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

Now, it’s time to dive into the best bet for each playoff matchup on April 19.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jayson Tatum 9+ Rebounds (-155)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Tatum is my favorite prop target on Sunday:

Jayson Tatum was awesome on the glass after returning to the lineup, averaging 10.0 rebounds per game in 16 games. He had at least nine boards in 11 of those matchups, including 10 games with at least 10 boards.

Now, he takes on a Philly team that was 21st in rebound percentage and 22nd in the league in opponent rebounds per game in the regular season. With Embiid out, the 76ers aren’t nearly as dangerous down low, and Tatum has shown before that he is Boston’s best rebounder in the playoffs.

Over his last three playoff runs, Tatum has averaged 11.5, 9.7 and 10.5 rebounds per game. He’s an absolute steal at this number, especially if Joe Mazzulla opts to go small with Tatum as the de facto center in those lineups.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-143)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I broke down why SGA is worth a look against the Suns, who have struggled to keep him in check this season:

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game, shooting an insane 55.3 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from deep. The star guard is on track to win a second MVP award in a row, and he’s a great scoring prop target on Sunday.

SGA dropped 25 or more points in each of his matchups with the Suns this season, including a 37-point game in their first meeting. He also had 28 points in a blowout win during the NBA Cup where he did not play down the stretch since the Thunder had already locked up the win.

I do expect a longer leash for the star guard on Sunday, especially since the Suns played the Thunder tight in one of the few games that Devin Booker suited up in, winning 108-105 back on Jan. 4.

SGA has averaged 30.2 and 29.9 points per game in his last two playoff runs, taking 22.4 and 21.9 shots per game. With that usage – and his ability to get to the free-throw line – the reigning Finals MVP is a solid prop target even against a top-10 defense.

Detroit Pistons -8.5 (-110) vs. Orlando Magic

Can Detroit cover at home, where it was 31-9 in the regular season? I shared why I think it's possible in today’s betting preview:

Detroit finished 17-18 against the spread as a home favorite this season, but it posted an average scoring margin of +10.7 in those games. The Pistons dominated at home, going 31-9, and they have a major rest advantage over the Magic, who played on Wednesday and Friday in the lead up to this game.

The Magic were under .500 against the spread as road dogs this season, posting an averaging scoring margin of -7.3. They were just 19-20 on the road overall (they played two games in Europe that are considered neutral site games), and I’m still not buying them after Friday’s win.

Orlando has been up and down all season long, and offensively is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage during the regular season. That isn’t going to cut it against a Detroit defense that is No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating, and the Pistons have plenty of rangy defenders to throw at Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Orlando beat a smaller, less physical Charlotte team on Friday, but the Pistons will be able to counter the Magic if they try to play bully ball in this matchup.

With Cunningham back, the Pistons’ offense is significantly more dangerous, and the emergence of Jalen Duren as an All-NBA caliber big man can’t be overlooked.

San Antonio Spurs -10.5 (-115) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

A play from today’s Blazers vs. Spurs betting preview, I’m laying the points with San Antonio at home:

I’m not going to worry about the Spurs’ lack of playoff experience, because this team has shown all season long that it can contend for a title.

San Antonio was 20-17-1 against the spread when favored at home in the regular season, and it finished the campaign ranking third in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating. The Blazers, on the other hand, were 19th in net rating (-0.4) and 21st in offensive rating.

That could be a major issue against the Spurs and the Defensive Player of the Year favorite in Wembanyama, as he could take away a lot of the downhill driving of Avdija that makes this Portland offense go.

One concerning trend for the Blazers this season is the fact that they were under .500 against the spread as road underdogs, posting an average scoring margin of -9.8 in those games. On top of that, Portland was just 16-33 against teams that were .500 or better during the regular season.

I’m buying the Spurs – who have a rest advantage – to run away with this Game 1 matchup. San Antonio lost just eight games at home in the regular season, and it remains a top-three team in the league on both ends of the floor – the only team in the NBA that can say that based on the final numbers for ORTG, DRTG and net rating in the regular season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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