Sky vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, July 7

Don’t look now, but the Phoenix Mercury are set to make a run in the Western Conference.

Kahleah Copper and Co. have won three games in a row and five of their last 10, inching closer to .500 in the 2026 season. After making the WNBA Finals in 2025, Phoenix was off to a disappointing start this season, but it seems to have found something over the last few weeks.

Now, the Mercury are favored at home on Tuesday night against the Chicago Sky, who have just six wins in the 2026 camping and are 2-8 in their last 10. Chicago is benching star guard Skylar Diggins for this game, which has led to her speaking out against the decision on social media. So, it'll be interesting to see how Tyler Marsh's squad fares with a new rotation.

The Sky are just 1-7 against Eastern Conference teams, but they have fared pretty well against the West (5-7). Still, the Mercury won the first meeting between these teams by eight points at home, yet they are just 3.5-point favorites on Tuesday night.

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interconference battle on July 7.

Sky vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sky +3.5 (-118)
Mercury -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Sky: +130
Mercury: -155

Total

174.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Sky vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 7
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona Family of Sports Network, CW26, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
Sky record: 6-14
Mercury record: 8-13

Sky vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Sky Injury Report

DiJonai Carrington -- out
Rickea Jackson -- out

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out
Natasha Mack -- out
Noemie Brochant -- probable

Sky vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper OVER 19.5 Points (-123)

Kahleah Copper is red hot at the moment, scoring 20 or more points in six of her last seven games, pushing her season average to 20.6 points per game.

With Satou Sabally now in New York, the Mercury need everything they can get from the four-time All-Star, and Copper is delivering at the highest level. She’s averaging 16.0 shots per game and has still put up big scoring numbers despite a down year from 3 (26.0 percent).

I’ll gladly bet on her against the Sky, who are 12th in the WNBA in both defensive rating and opponent points per game this season.

Sky vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I like Phoenix to continue its winning streak:

Phoenix already has a win over Chicago under its belt this season, winning by eight points at home back on May 15.

The Sky are one of the worst teams in the league this season, posting a minus-3.8 net rating while ranking 11th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. They have just three road wins in the 2026 campaign, and Chicago is just 9-11 against the spread.

Despite a really slow start, Phoenix has a net rating of minus-1.8, and it ranks in the top seven in the league in net, offensive and defensive rating over its last 10 games.

Kahleah Copper has also come on as of late, scoring 20 or more points in six of her last seven games. The star guard has provided a major boost to an offense that is just 11th overall in points per game this season.

The Sky have struggled since Rickea Jackson (knee) was ruled out for the season, and they’ve posted a minus-7.0 net rating on the road. I think Phoenix can extend its winning streak to four on Tuesday night.

Pick: Mercury Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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