Storm vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, July 2

The Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury are the two worst teams in the Western Conference so far this season, but both squads have won two games in a row heading into Thursday’s matchup.

Injuries derailed Seattle’s start to the season, as star center Dominique Malonga missed time in concussion protocol and Ezi Magbegor (probable tonight) opened the season on the shelf.

Now, the Storm are looking to build on two extremely impressive wins over Atlanta and New York when they take on Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury. Phoenix went to the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season, but it has struggled out of the gate in 2026, winning just seven of its first 20 games, including a disappointing 2-6 record at home.

Oddsmakers have set the Mercury as 3.5-point favorites in this matchup, but Seattle (11-9 against the spread) has been one of the better teams to bet on to cover in the W this season.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction as both of these teams look to extend their winning streaks on Thursday night.

Storm vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Storm +3.5 (-105)
Mercury -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Storm: +140
Mercury: -166

Total

167.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Storm vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 2
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona Family of Sports, CW Seattle, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
Storm record: 5-15
Mercury record: 7-13

Storm vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Storm Injury Report

Ezi Magbegor – probable
Taina Mair – out

Mercury Injury Report

Natasha Mack – out
Sami Whitcomb – out
Noemie Brochant – out

Storm vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Storm Best WNBA Prop Bet

Dominique Malonga OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-119)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Malonga is a solid prop target against Phoenix:

Storm center Dominique Malonga is averaging 7.6 rebounds per game this season, but she’s really stepped up in that department as of late.

Malonga has returned to her usual role after missing time in concussion protocol, picking up 10 or more boards in four of her last five games. She was held to three rebounds in 22 minutes in her last meeting with Phoenix, but I am buying a bounce-back showing on Thursday night.

The former No. 2 overall pick has cleared this line in three of four games where she’s played at least 30 minutes this season, and the Mercury are ninth in the league in both rebound percentage and opponent rebounds per game.

Even though she struggled against Phoenix last month, I think Malonga is worth a look in this market.

Storm vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

On paper, this seems like a great matchup to take the UNDER, but I’m going to zag and bet on a higher-scoring game on Thursday night.

The Storm are 13th in offensive rating and 14th in points per game this season while the Mercury are 10th in offensive rating and 11th in points per game. Still, both of these teams are in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating, and there is an interesting trend when it comes to Phoenix’s home games.

The OVER is a league-best 7-1 when Phoenix is at home this season, even though the Mercury have won just two of those games.

While the Storm offense has struggled for most of 2026, they did hang 105 points on Atlanta (No. 5 in defensive rating) and 99 points on New York (No. 4 in defensive rating) in their last two wins.

The Mercury aren’t nearly as good on the defensive end, and this total suggests that we’ll see a game in the low 80s on Thursday night. When the Mercury are at home, six of their eight games have combined for 168 or more points.

I’ll trust this OVER trend to continue between these two struggling Western Conference squads.

Pick: OVER 167.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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