World Cup Champion Odds: Spain Set as Odds-On Favorite; Argentina Gaining Ground vs. England

The favorite to win the World Cup is out, as France was upset by Spain in the semifinals on Tuesday, pushing La Roja to the top spot in the odds to win this tournament.

Spain has not been in a World Cup Final since it won it all in 2010, and this may be the nation’s best chance to get back to the top of the soccer world, as it entered the tournament at No. 2 in the odds to win.

On the other side of the bracket, defending champion Argentina is set as an underdog in Wednesday’s semifinal against England and Jude Bellingham. England knocked off Norway in the quarterfinals, reaching the semis of the World Cup for just the third time since it last won it all in 1966.

Can England make history and reach another World Cup Final? Argentina won’t go easily, as Lionel Messi and Co. have made some impressive comebacks already in this World Cup.

Here’s how the odds to win the World Cup look with just three teams left in the running.

Odds to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spain: -156
England: +300
Argentina: +400

Spain pulled off an upset on Tuesday afternoon against France, shutting out Les Blues in a 2-0 win.

Through seven games, Spain has allowed just one goal (to Belgium in the quarterfinals), and it has a chance to win its first World Cup since 2010. La Roja should be favored to win this tournament since they’ve already advanced to the title game, but it’s worth noting that Spain is an odds-on favorite even with another semifinal matchup remaining. This is a sign that Lamine Yamal and Co. should be pretty heavily favored in Sunday’s World Cup Final.

England vs. Argentina Odds to Advance to World Cup Final

England: -120
Argentina: +100

On Tuesday, I wrote about some movement in the three-way moneyline in the England vs. Argentina matchup, as the defending champs went from +205 to +200 to win. Argentina has continued to gain ground in the latest odds, as it went from +110 to +100 to advance while England fell from -135 to -120.

England is still favored on Wednesday, but it’s interesting that Argentina’s odds have steadily improved against Harry Kane and Co. this week. At DraftKings, 56 percent of the bets are on Argentina to advance, which could be causing this line to shift.

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared a ton of picks for this game, including his pick for who will advance in this match. He likes the defending champs to get the job done as underdogs:

Let's be honest, we all feel in our gut that the country of England is going to once again suffer from heartbreak sooner or later, and now I think is when it's going to happen. Argentina's path to this match hasn't been as hard as some other teams, but let's not allow recency bias to take over. Argentina has the better expected goal differential in this matchup at +0.9 per 90 minutes, which is a step above England at +0.68.

Let's also not forget that England has struggled at times in this tournament. They played Ghana to a draw, needed two late goals to beat DR Congo, and needed extra time to beat Norway. If they don't bring their "A" game against Argentina, they'll be facing France in the third-place match this weekend.

The wrong team is favored. Give me Argentina.

If MacMillan is correct and Argentina does advance, Spain’s odds to win the World Cup at this point in the tournament suggest that it’ll be favored in Sunday’s final.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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