The Four Most Overrated, Underrated Teams in This Week’s College Football Playoff Rankings

The Hoosiers and Crimson Tide are getting a lot of credit despite some shaky recent results.

Curt Cignetti has built Indiana into a powerhouse in short order, but should the Hoosiers be ranked No. 4 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After two full months of play, the College Football Playoff selection committee has released its first Top 25 rankings of the year. And as is so often the case with these rankings, they are a doozy.

The top three teams didn’t supply much drama. No. 1 Miami and No. 3 Utah are two of the nation’s three remaining undefeated teams, while No. 2 Georgia has been largely dominant—a stunning upset loss to Auburn aside. 

After that, the selection committee did what it does best: Launch a wave of commentary and debate about its rankings. 

Which teams are getting too much credit as we enter Week 10, and which should be ranked higher in these initial rankings? Here are the most overrated and underrated teams of this week’s CFP Top 25. —Dan Lyons

Overrated: No. 4 Indiana

The Hoosiers know how to win—about as important a skill as there is in sports. But when things are so tight between zero-, one- and two-loss teams like we have in the jumble atop these rankings, Indiana’s recent high-wire act is tough to square with a No. 4 ranking over some of the other teams in the top 10.

Of their six Big Ten games this season, lowly Rutgers is the only opponent that the Hoosiers have beaten by more than a single score. Indiana also declined to test itself in the nonconference, beyond a game against a good American squad in North Texas. I certainly wouldn’t bet against Curt Cignetti to get the quarterback situation figured out in time for the stretch run and compete for another national title. But as of today, No. 4 feels a bit too high. —D.L.

Underrated: No. 11 Notre Dame 

Look, I get it. Different rankings, different criteria. But to see Notre Dame, ranked fourth in the latest AP Top 25 poll, check in all the way down at 11 just felt wrong. CFP committee chairman Hunter Yurachek, in explaining the Fighting Irish’s ranking, stated that the program just doesn’t have its “signature win” yet, though he made sure to note that the committee is “impressed” by Notre Dame. Sure, the Fighting Irish’s win over Wisconsin is depreciating by the week and Notre Dame squandered its first opportunity to secure a signature victory with its narrow loss to BYU in October. 

Yet, Notre Dame, despite some slow starts, has looked rather convincing in all its other games, which is how a top-tier team should look when playing subpar competition. And the numbers back it up, as Notre Dame has the highest average margin of victory in the country. The Fighting Irish were likely always going to be ranked behind BYU, given their head-to-head loss to the Cougars, which came with its fair share of controversy. But No. 11 feels too low given how Notre Dame has fared this season in the eye test department, and the Irish just got some perfect bulletin board material from the selection committee for its upcoming date with No. 1 Miami. —Tim Capurso

Notre Dame got back into the win column against rival Navy, after a recent loss to BYU. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Overrated: No. 5 Alabama

The ranking that likely drew the most consternation on social media as it was announced: the Crimson Tide sneaking into the top five. And it’s easy to see why given the recent results. Bama was off this past weekend, and in its last three games, beat a bad Texas A&M team in a relatively competitive game and dropped games to Georgia and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. 

The loss to the No. 2 Bulldogs came in a hard-fought game, but No. 13 Tennessee absolutely dominated the Tide, and yet find themselves two spots outside of the field, despite the committee signaling that it takes head-to-head results into account heavily in other spots (BYU over Notre Dame, and Alabama’s one-spot advantage over Kentucky). —D.L.

Underrated: No. 16 Wake Forest 

It wouldn’t be a CFP rankings show if there wasn’t angst, hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth. In the case of Wake Forest, which checked in at 16th, the proverbial pitchforks and torches just may be warranted. 

The Demon Deacons rank 11th in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which reflects the chance that an average Top 25 team would have the team’s record or better with the given schedule, are 7–1 with their only loss coming to No. 1 Miami and have won their last four games—ACC bottom-feeders or not—by a combined margin of 187–31. Yet, they checked in at 16th, which is the committee essentially punishing the Demon Deacons for who they’ve faced. 

Sure, the top could fall out on this Wake Forest team down the stretch, perhaps in tougher ACC dates against SMU and Duke. Or, the Demon Deacons could steamroll through both matchups, win out and make the committee look foolish for such a low initial ranking. —T.C. 

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