Projecting the AP Top 25 After College Football’s Week 1: LSU Rises, Michigan Falls

While it was cupcake-smashing week for many of college football’s top teams, some suffered near scares. Here’s how we see the AP Top 25 poll playing out as a result.

Lane Kiffin had plenty to be happy about during his LSU debut, a 51–10 shellacking of Clemson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week 1 of the 2026 college football season is in the books, and what a week it was. Traditionally, it’s cupcake-smashing week around the country for some of the biggest programs, and while that remained true for most of the biggest schools, others (cough, Michigan, cough) struggled to handle competition the good folks at Vegas thought they should have handled with ease.

Boise State gave No. 2 Oregon a real scare at Autzen Stadium, LSU and the Lane Train steamrolled Dabo Swinney’s Tigers at Death Valley in Kiffin’s debut and Ole Miss–Louisville delivered a thriller that lived up to the hype as the only ranked matchup of the week.

As such, the voters will have some shuffling to do before the poll comes out at noon ET Tuesday. Here’s how we see things shaking out.

Projected AP Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Ball State, 56–3
Week 2: at Texas, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Ohio State will hang onto the top spot after dismantling Ball State by 53 points. The Julian Sayin–Jeremiah Smith connection is just as lethal as last season—perhaps even better—and the Matt Patricia defense looks deep and well-stocked with talent. After a quiet start, the Buckeyes’ running game got going in a big way. Now, the real test looms in a prime-time road game against Texas.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Tennessee State, 63–3
Week 2: vs. Western Kentucky, 12:45 p.m. ET Saturday

Oregon’s near scare vs. Boise State opened the door for a riser to claim the No. 2 ranking. Who better than Georgia, fresh off of a 63–3 pasting of poor Tennessee State in which the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 660 to 109, averaging over 10 yards per pass and rush. There are things for Kirby Smart’s Dawgs to clean up, such as the eight penalties, some of which were impactful, others just plain foolish. Bulldogs fans have to be especially encouraged by how impressive the vertical passing attack looked, inferior opponent aside.

3. Texas Longhorns (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Texas State, 59–7
Week 2: vs. Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

How about those Texas transfers? Running back Hollywood Smothers ripped off a 45-yard run on the Longhorns’ first play from scrimmage, while Cam Coleman caught the first of his two touchdown passes to cap off the opening scoring drive. Raleek Brown and Smothers combined for three scores. Yeah, coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning are going to be in their bags with all these weapons. And this Will Muschamp defense, while surrendering several big plays downfield, forced three turnovers and looks like it’s going to create a lot of short fields for Manning and the offense. Up next? Ohio State.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1–0)

Last Week: Beat Wisconsin, 41–13
Week 2: vs. Rice, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

For a half of football, this one was too close for comfort for Notre Dame, no stranger to early season stumbles under Marcus Freeman. The Badgers, 21-point underdogs, outgained the Fighting Irish in the first half. Then, the second half happened. The new-look running back tandem of Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. got going and took some of the pressure off quarterback CJ Carr, while the defense came up with a touchdown and held the Badgers to just three points. The first half was ugly, but I suspect the second-half dominance was enough to convince voters to keep the Irish at No. 4.

5. Miami Hurricanes (1–0, 1–0 ACC)

Last Week: Beat Stanford, 45–6
Week 2: vs. Florida A&M, 8 p.m. ET Thursday

Darian Mensah (10) and wide receiver Malachi Toney (1) both set program records in Miami’s season-opening win. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It was a record-setting debut under center for Duke transfer Darian Mensah, who had more touchdown passes than incompletions and set a program record for passing yards (401) and touchdowns (five) in a debut. But the star of the show was Malachi Toney, who jitterbugged past the Stanford defense en route to a Miami-record 234 yards and three scores. It’s only one game, but could Mensah be poised for a Cam Ward–esque season throwing to Toney and old pal Cooper Barkate in Shannon Dawson’s aerial attack?

6. Oregon Ducks (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Boise State, 34–27
Week 2: at Oklahoma State, noon ET Saturday

Boise State gave Oregon, 24.5-point favorites, everything it could handle, as it was the Broncos, and not the NFL draft pick–laden Ducks, who controlled the line of scrimmage and took a 17–14 lead into the locker room. Then Dan Lanning, who has a knack for knowing which buttons to push with his team, got mean and tore into his squad. The Ducks defense was better for it in the second half.

Most importantly? Some early season adversity seemed to bring out the best in quarterback Dante Moore, who made every throw when they were needed, including the eventual go-ahead, 62-yard dagger in the fourth quarter with under eight minutes left. Next week’s date against an underwhelming Oklahoma State squad is a prime opportunity for the Ducks to get back to dominating.

7. Indiana Hoosiers (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat North Texas, 52–16
Week 2: vs. Howard, noon ET Saturday

You could almost hear the “one of us, one of us” chant from Indiana fans as blood poured from new starting quarterback Josh Hoover’s nose after a wicked face mask from a North Texas player. Hoover, tough as nails, shrugged off the mere flesh wound to throw one of his four touchdown passes just three plays later. Yeah, he can hang (zero turnovers), and he’s definitely coach Curt Cignetti’s type. Indiana has some things to clean up—it always will in Cignetti’s eyes—namely, the run defense, but with upcoming dates against Howard and Western Kentucky, the Hoosiers have a soft runway to iron out the kinks before the schedule gets scarier.

8. LSU Tigers (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Clemson, 51–10
Week 2: vs. Louisiana Tech, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

I don’t know what was more ferocious, the vicious storm that delayed the start of Lane Kiffin’s highly anticipated LSU debut, or the absolute firestorm that hit Clemson once play began. Kiffin made Dabo Swinney’s Tigers look like a peewee squad, outgaining Clemson 644–145 and running 47 plays in Clemson territory to Clemson’s 48 plays total for the game. So lopsided was the affair at halftime that Kiffin, ever the troll, couldn’t resist a witty aside at the end of his interview: “Imagine if we had pro players.” They might for next weekend’s date with Louisiana Tech. Either way, the Bulldogs should be shaking in their Cajun Reeboks.

9. Texas A&M Aggies (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Missouri State, 50–0
Week 2: vs. Arizona State, noon ET Saturday

As far as cupcake-smashing affairs go, Texas A&M–Missouri State was pretty bad. The Aggies offense got off to a bit of a sluggish start, but it didn’t matter. The poor Bears didn’t pick up a first down until halfway through the second quarter and toiled for 67 total yards of offense against the Aggies’ stout defense. Texas A&M can’t afford to sleepwalk—they had five penalties in the first half—against the SEC heavyweights on the schedule, but overall, there isn’t too much to complain about here for Mike Elko & Co. Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils should provide significantly more resistance in Week 2.

10. Ole Miss Rebels (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat No. 24 Louisville, 41–38
Week 2: vs. Charlotte, 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday

They probably already do, but Ole Miss fans should thank God for Trinidad Chambliss. Credit where credit is due to first-year starter Lincoln Kienholz and Louisville’s offensive operation, but Pete Golding’s Rebels defense got toasted to the tune of 10.6 yards per pass and 469 yards of total offense. But Chambliss, who accounted for 396 of the Rebels’ 488 yards of offense and four of their touchdowns with star halfback Kewan Lacy banged up, had a response every time the Cardinals kept creeping back. Ole Miss has to tighten up on the back end, but with Chambliss under center, they’re going to have more than a chance in every game they play this year.

11. Oklahoma Sooners (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat UTEP, 51–0
Week 2: at Michigan, noon ET Saturday

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat East Carolina, 48–10
Week 2: at Kentucky, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

13. Texas Tech Red Raiders (1–0, 0–0 Big 12)

Last Week: Beat Abilene Christian, 33–10
Week 2: at Oregon State, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

14. USC Trojans (2–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Fresno State, 39–0
Week 2: vs. Louisiana, 11 p.m. ET Saturday

15. BYU Cougars (1–0, 0–0 Big 12)

Last Week: Beat Utah Tech, 63–7
Week 2: vs. Arizona, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

16. Penn State Nittany Lions (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Marshall, 45–0
Week 2: at Temple, noon ET Saturday

17. Tennessee Volunteers (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Furman, 56–9
Week 2: at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. ET Saturday

18. Washington Huskies (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Washington State, 24–10
Week 2: vs. Utah State, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

19. Utah Utes (1–0, 0–0 Big 12)

Last Week: Beat Idaho, 66–14
Week 2: vs. Arkansas, 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday

20. Iowa Hawkeyes (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Northern Illinois, 40–0
Week 2: vs. Iowa State, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

21. SMU Mustangs (1–0, 1–0 ACC)

Last Week: Beat Florida State, 27-24
Week 2: vs. UC Davis, 4 p.m. ET Saturday

22. Michigan Wolverines (1–0, 0–0 Big Ten)

Last Week: Beat Western Michigan, 13–12
Week 2: vs. Oklahoma, noon ET Saturday

23. Missouri Tigers (1–0, 0–0 SEC)

Last Week: Beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff, 54–14
Week 2: at Kansas, 8 p.m. ET Friday

24. Houston Cougars (1–0, 0–0 Big 12)

Last Week: Beat Oregon State, 33–20
Week 2: vs. Southern, 7 p.m. ET Saturday

25. Louisville Cardinals (0–1, 0–0 ACC)

Last Week: Lost to Ole Miss, 41–38
Week 2: vs. Villanova, 7 p.m. ET Friday

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