Bracket Watch: Final Projections Ahead of Selection Sunday
It’s time for Sports Illustrated’s finalized projected NCAA tournament field! The NCAA tournament selection committee has some major decisions to make, including some very difficult ones on the bubble and for the top overall seed. With just a couple of hours until the committee reveals the field of 68, here’s our prediction for how things will look when the official bracket comes out.
On the Bubble:
Last Four Byes
Boise State
Mississippi State
Providence
Utah State
Last Four In
Rutgers
NC State
Arizona State
Pittsburgh
First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Nevada
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
North Carolina
Clemson
Michigan
North Texas
The margins are fairly tight around the bubble, partially because no team other than Penn State convincingly played itself into the field during conference tournament week. Rutgers has a strange résumé with several bad losses, but also boasts a road win at Purdue that should carry significant weight. NC State’s “clean” résumé wins out despite a lack of quality at the top, though a weak nonconference schedule could come back to bite them. Arizona State has a Quad 4 loss, but its top-tier road and neutral wins over Arizona and Creighton have the Sun Devils in our projected field. Lastly, Pittsburgh stays in as SI’s final team in the field thanks to a solid road record and stacking wins in a major conference.
Oklahoma State is right near the cut line and could truly go either way. Winning eight games in the loaded Big 12 should count for something. Nevada, like Wyoming a season ago, comes into Selection Sunday struggling, but has some quality wins built up and the Mountain West earned four bids a season ago. Wisconsin hasn’t looked like an NCAA tournament team for a few months, but it did enough work in the nonconference to at least stay in the picture. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s strong finish has the Commodores at least in the conversation, but with a NET ranking of 81, it’d be surprising if the committee puts them in.
Alabama is firmly in the race for the No. 1 overall seed.
Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports
* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
** = indicates team has already clinched an automatic bid
South Region
No. 1 Alabama** vs. No. 16 FDU**/Howard**
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 West Virginia
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts**
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona**
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Arizona State/NC State
No. 3 Marquette** vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara**
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Penn State
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Montana State**
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 SEMO**/Texas Southern**
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Duke** vs. No. 12 VCU**
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Louisiana**
No. 6 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 11 Providence
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Princeton**
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Arizona** vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State**
West Region
No.1 Kansas vs. No.16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi**
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 San Diego State** vs. No. 12 Charleston**
No. 4 Xavier vs. No.13 Kent State**
No.6 Texas A&M vs. No.11 Rutgers/Pittsburgh
No.3 Gonzaga** vs. No.14 Grand Canyon**
No. 7 Northwestern vs. 10 Mississippi State
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Vermont**
East Region
No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky**
No. 8 Florida Atlantic** vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Drake**
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Furman**
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Utah State
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 14 Colgate**
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Texas** vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville**
