Minnesota Vikings 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Hey Irv Smith, Step Up!
The foundation of the Minnesota Vikings’ offense has a veteran feel, except for WR Justin Jefferson. They went 15-18 over the past two seasons with fading defense and a regressing offense. QB Kirk Cousins starts the year at age 34. The Vikings thought enough of his future to extend him through 2023 for an additional $35 million. The luster of RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen faded due to both players failing to play an entire season in any of the past three years. The questions needed to be answered this year are: can Minnesota rebuild their defense in one offseason, and does the offensive have one special season left in the tank?
OFFENSE
The Vikings have the tools to run and pass the ball well, with game score determining their opportunity on each side of the offensive equation. Their weakness on defense requires Minnesota to control the clock with a ball-control offense. Unfortunately, the scoreboard leads to peaks and valleys in the weekly passing stats.
QUARTERBACKS
Kirk Cousins – click here for fantasy projections
Kellen Mond
Over four seasons at Texas A&M, Mond passes for 9,661 yards with 71 touchdowns and 27 interceptions while offering value on the ground (438/1,609/22). His best play came in 2018 (3,581 combined yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions).
In his rookie season, the Vikings gave him only three attempts (five yards).
Mond has the foundation to run the ball and throw well on the move. His challenge comes from his poor accuracy to the sidelines and the deep passing game. The Vikings hope he can develop into a productive game manager.
Other options: Sean Mannion, Nate Stanley
RUNNING BACKS
Last season, the most significant negative for the Vikings’ running backs was the step back in touchdown production (11 – 24 in 2020 and 2019 in 2019). Their backs also had a regression in their yards per catch (6.70) and yards per carry (4.3), showing a weakness in their offensive line. In the end, they gained 2,404 combined yards with 11 scores and 90 catches, or 396.40 fantasy points in PPR leagues (23.32 per week).
Dalvin Cook – click here for fantasy projections
Alexander Mattison
Minnesota gave Mattison the best opportunity of his three-year career in 2021, leading to 719 combined yards with four touchdowns and 32 catches. In his three games with starting snaps and over 20 touches (32, 32, and 25), he delivered Cook-level production in fantasy points (23.10, 27.30, and 21.40) in PPR formats. However, over his other 13 matchups, Mattison scored only 55.60 combined fantasy points. In addition, his yards per rush (3.7) and yards per catch (7.1) came in at career lows.
Fantasy outlook: Anyone drafting Cook must add Mattison as his handcuff. By doing so last year, the two players combined for 280.10 fantasy points in PPR leagues (in a down season) by inserting Mattison in for Cook in Weeks 3, 5, and 13. His ADP (119) in the NFFC ranks him as the 41st running back while allowing enough range to tie to Cook.
Kene Nwangwu
Nwangwu gets a knock for lack of experience with the ball in his hands, but any chance for him to grow as a runner comes from more game action. He must feel holes open while knowing when to hit the gas to win in tight quarters. His speed plays well while being a hard worker.
Over three seasons at Iowa State, Nwangwu gained only 752 combined yards with four touchdowns and six catches on 122 touches.
Other options: Ty Chandler, Bryant Koback
WIDE RECEIVERS
The wide receiver production made great strides over the previous two seasons since the arrival of Jefferson. Their wideouts set three-year highs in catches (239), receiving yards (3,160), touchdowns (28), and targets (368). Minnesota will use its best weapons to win games, meaning their wide receivers will be active again in 2022.
Justin Jefferson – click here for fantasy projections
Adam Thielen
Injuries over the last three seasons led to Thielen missing 10 starts, leading to a lower production each year (30/418/6, 74/925/14, and 67/726/10). When at his best in 2018, he caught 113 of his 153 targets for 1,373 yards and nine touchdowns. His scoring value (24 touchdowns) improved over the previous 28 games while maintaining a high catch rate (69.4). The Vikings used Thielen closer to the line of scrimmage in 2021 (10.8 yards per catch – career low).
His season ended with an ankle injury that required surgery last December. Over the first 11 games, Thielen had a floor of 19.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in five matchups (9/102/2, 11/126/1, 6/78/1, 8/82/1, and 5/62/2). Minnesota only gave him double-digit targets in three games.
Fantasy outlook: Cousins likes to look for Thielen in the end zone while featuring him as a chain mover. His recurring injuries led to a free-falling ADP (81) in the NFFC in mid-June. Even with empty stats (4/40 over the final six games) last season, Thielen ranked 28th in fantasy scoring (199.80) in PPR leagues. Based on his early-season ranking at wide receiver (36th), he looks to be a value. Thielen should catch 90 balls for 1,000 yards with double-digit scores if he makes 17 starts.
K.J. Osborn
After not catching a ball in his rookie season, Osborn emerged as the Vikings’ WR3. He finished with 50 catches for 655 yards and seven touchdowns on 82 targets. Over his final six games as the injury cover for Thielen, Osborn picked up 19 catches for 290 yards and five scores on 35 targets. His season started with three surprising games (7/76, 5/91/1, and 6/78/1) over the first six weeks.
Osborn had 146 catches for 2,037 yards and 17 touchdowns on 261 targets over his four seasons in college.
Fantasy outlook: Osborn looked good in his role with the Vikings last season. The injury to TE Irv Smith also helped his role and opportunity. I view him more as a handcuff to Thielen than a starting fantasy receiver.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Over four seasons at Iowa, Smith-Marsette caught 110 passes for 1,615 yards and 14 touchdowns. He added 34 rushes for 274 yards and another four scores. His best year came in 2019 (44/830/8).
Smith-Marsette needs to add bulk and strength if he has any chance of earning wide receiver snaps at the next level. He brings open field running and long speed that plays well in the return game. However, Smith-Marsette isn't at an NFL level in his route-running with questions with his hands and quickness.
In his rookie season, he caught five of his six targets for 116 yards and two touchdowns, with most of the damage coming in Week 17 (3/103/1).
Fantasy outlook: The Vikings want Smith-Marsette to stretch the field and add speed to their offense. He should see more snaps this year while remaining in the free-agent pool in all formats.
Other options: Bisi Johnson, Jalen Nailor, Albert Wilson
TIGHT ENDS
Minnesota lost their starting tight end before the season started last year, leading to three-year lows in all categories. In 2019 and 2020, the Vikings had two viable options at tight end. Cousins likes to look for his tight ends at the goal, but Irv Smith is coming off a significant knee injury.
Irv Smith
The Vikings drafted Smith in the second round in 2019 after catching 44 of his 61 targets for 710 yards and seven touchdowns at Alabama.
He came into the NFL with a raw skill set with questions about his route running and blocking. However, Smith runs well with the strength and quickness to threaten a defense in the deep passing game.
Over his 29 games with Minnesota, he has 66 catches for 676 yards and seven touchdowns on 90 targets. More of his chances in 2020 came over four matchups (4/64, 4/55, 4/63/1, and 6/63/2). Smith missed three games with groin and back issues.
Last year he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee that required surgery in late August, leading to a lost season.
Fantasy outlook: His mid-June ADP (138) paints him as the 14th tight end drafted. I expect a jump to 55 catches for 650 yards with a chance at six to eight touchdowns.
Zach Davidson
His college career started in 2017 at Central Missouri as a punter. Davidson worked as a back tight end the following season, leading to 11 catches for 239 yards and three touchdowns. The growth in his receiving game pushed him to the starting lineup in 2019 (40/894/15) while continuing to handle the punting job.
Davidson went to a small school, so he’ll need time to develop with the Vikings (no snaps in 2021). He is a player to follow, but his playing time should be minimal early in his career.
Other options: Ben Ellefson, Johnny Mundt, Nick Muse
KICKER
Greg Joseph
After kicking his way out of the NFL in 2019, Joseph turned into a stud last year (33-for-38 in field goal attempts), highlighted by his long-range success (seven kicks from 50 yards or more in his nine tries). However, he did miss four of his 40 extra points. In his brief career, Joseph made 86.2% of his field goals.
Fantasy outlook: Even with a top-tier ranking in 2021, Joseph is the 21st kicker selected in the NFFC (team kicker format). I expect him to be worthy of a top 10 finish this year with week-to-week starting value.
COACHING
The Vikings flipped their coaching staff in the offseason, leading to Kevin O’Connell earning his first head coaching job. Over the past three years, he held the offensive coordinator job for Washington and the Rams, highlighted by his offense winning the Super Bowl in 2021. At age 37, O’Connell has been coaching in the NFL since 2015.
Wes Phillips takes over the play-calling for the offense after spending the previous three seasons with the Rams. Most of his experience in the NFL has come as a tight ends coach. Phillips has 15 seasons of experience in the league.
Minnesota slipped to 14th in points scored (425) and 12th in offensive yards. They haven’t had a top-five scoring offense since 2009.
Their defense is now in the hands of Ed Donatell. He spent the last three seasons as the defensive coordinator for Denver. Donatell has held the same position for the Packers (2000-2003), Falcons (2004-2006), and Commanders (2008) while helping Green Bay (1997) and Denver (1998) win Super Bowl.
The Vikings' defense has been rebuilt in 2020 and 2021, coming after five seasons with a top-nine rating in points allowed. Last year they allowed the third-most yards in the league, with a slight improvement in points (426 – 24th).
FREE AGENCY
Minnesota threw over $70 million at their top three defensive signings (LB Za’Darius Smith, DT Harrison Phillips, and LB Jordan Hicks). They lost CB Xavier Woods and LB Nick Vigil. TE Tyler Conklin made the jump to the Jets, and C Mason Cole landed in Pittsburgh. The Vikings added G Chris Reed and T Jesse Davis to their offensive line.
DRAFT
With five of their first six selections in the 2022 NFL Draft, the Vikings addressed their weakness on the defense (S Lewis Cine – 1.32, CB Andrew Booth – 2.10, LB Brian Asamoah – 3.2, CB Akayleb Evans – 4.13, and DE Esezi Otomewo – 5.22). In addition, Minnesota invested in a pair of offensive linemen (G Ed Ingram – 2.27 and T Vederian Lowe – 6.5). Offensive depth was on their mind in the fifth (RB Ty Chandler), sixth (WR Jalen Nailor), and seventh (TE Nick Muse) rounds.
OFFENSIVE LINE
The Vikings fell to 19th in the NFL in rushing yards (1,900) while averaging 26.4 rushes per game. Ball carriers gained only 4.3 yards per rush with 10 touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards.
Minnesota bumped to the 10th most passing yards (4,450) with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 30 sacks.
In his rookie season, after getting drafted 23rd overall, LT Christian Darrisaw missed six games with groin and ankle issues. He finished the year with more success in run blocking while showing more promise over the latter part of the season. C Garrett Bradbury allows too much pressure in the pass rush with neutral success in run blocking. RT Brian O’Neill has been an asset over the past three years with help in all areas. The Vikings have a pair of young guards (Ezra Cleveland and Ed Ingram). If both players earn starting jobs and live up to their draft pedigree (second-round picks in 2019 and 2022), Minnesota will have a rebound in the run game with fewer sacks allowed. Their offensive line should be league average at a minimum.
DEFENSE
Minnesota inched up to 26th in rushing yards allowed (2,222) with 15 touchdowns and nine runs over 20 yards. They gave up 4.7 yards per rush, with opponents attempting 27.9 carries per game.
The Vikings fell to 28th in the league in passing yards allowed (4,300) with 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.5 yards per pass attempt despite being sacked 51 times.
S Harrison Smith remains the stud on Minnesota’s defense. On the downside, he’ll start the year at age 33 after recording 114 tackles with three sacks. The Vikings have two young upside cornerbacks (Cameron Dantzler and Andrew Booth) plus a veteran presence in Patrick Peterson. Their secondary should be much better this season when adding S Lewis Cine (first-round draft pick in 2022).
The linebacker position has two high-volume pass rushers (Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter), and Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks have a history of triple-digit sack seasons. Their defensive line has one run stopper (Dalvin Tomlinson) with development help needed at defensive end.
Minnesota will improve this year defensively with a much higher ceiling if their young players develop quickly. In the fantasy market, they offer matchup value and an eye on their progress early in the season.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
