10 ‘What If’ Scenarios That Can Make or Break Your Fantasy Football Season
If you’ve long been a fan of pro and fantasy football, you probably know that it can oftentimes be difficult to predict. Heck, I always say “the only thing predictable about the NFL is its unpredictability.” That statement is true every single season.
Remember how we all thought the Seahawks offense was in trouble last year with Geno Smith taking over for Russell Wilson? We all know how that turned out. Wilson was awful in Denver and Smith was surprisingly a top-five fantasy quarterback.
“I’ll take things no one predicted would happen in fantasy football for 200, Alex!”
Doh!
Oh, and raise your hand if you predicted Tyreek Hill would have a career year without Patrick Mahomes, or that “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy would lead the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game. Heck, the Niners traded up in the draft to get their “franchise” quarterback in Trey Lance the previous year!
So, which scenarios that have been widely predicted heading into the upcoming season would have the biggest fantasy impact if ultimately proven to be wrong?
Here are my top 10 “What If?” scenarios that could affect your 2023 fantasy teams.
What if … Bijan Robinson splits work with Tyler Allgeier?
Robinson was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft, and he’s a top-10 pick in most fantasy leagues, too. He’s getting positive buzz in training camp so far, especially as a receiver. Still, what if the run-first Falcons decide to use both Robinson and Allgeier in a committee? I think that’s very unlikely, as Robinson is an elite talent, but Allgeier did rush for 1,000-plus yards for coach Arthur Smith last season.
Jets running back Breece Hall is looking to bounce back after ACL surgery.
Chris Pedota/USA Today Sports Network
What if … Breece Hall’s knee is a bigger concern than we think?
Hall has all kinds of talent and upside in the statistical world, but are we all being too lax on his return from a torn ACL? Not every running back can come back from that injury like Adrian Peterson and rush for over 2,000 yards. The Jets have also had Dalvin Cook in for a visit, and that makes me wonder if Hall will even be ready for Week 1. He could have a slower start to the season, regardless.
What if … Josh Jacobs can’t duplicate his magical season?
Jacobs is coming off a career season, leading the NFL in rushing while finishing as the RB3 in PPR points. He’s currently holding out over a new contract, however, so that could be a cause for concern. Jacobs is still being picked among the top eight running backs based on average draft position (ADP) data, but you have to wonder if the holdout plus built-in regression leads to a lesser campaign.
What if … Calvin Ridley shows rust in his return to action?
Ridley hasn’t played a full NFL season since 2020, and he’s been on the outside looking in since five games into the 2021 campaign. Still, fantasy managers are picking him as a top-20 fantasy receiver -- ahead of teammate and 1,000-yard wideout Christian Kirk. Ridley has been gaining rave reviews in camp, but are we wrong to expect him to outperform Kirk in a loaded Jaguars passing game?
What if … Deebo Samuel’s 2021 season was an outlier year?
Samuel was one of the bigger fantasy disappointments a season ago, scoring 13 points per game after averaging more than 21 the previous year. He has now averaged 13 or fewer points in all but one of his four seasons in the league, so maybe that 2021 season with all of those rushing points was the outlier? And maybe it’s Brandon Aiyuk, not Samuel, we should target in our drafts.
What if … the Seahawks go with a true backfield committee?
I’m a believer in Kenneth Walker III as the Seahawks top back, even with the addition of rookie Zach Charbonnet, and he’s still coming off the board as a top-20 runner. What if we’re wrong, though, and coach Pete Carroll goes with a full-blown split backfield? Both backs are dealing with injuries in camp, however, so we might not get a clearer idea about this situation for a few weeks. Stay tuned.
enny Simmons/USA Today Sports Network
What if … DeAndre Hopkins isn’t the same in Tennessee?
The Titans had a massive need at wideout and a ton of available targets in the pass attack, so this is a good spot for Hopkins on the surface. But what if he becomes the latest in a line of veteran stars like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Julio Jones to go to Tennessee late in their careers and falter? I think Hopkins still has plenty left in the tank, but he’s still a risk-reward option in most fantasy drafts.
What if … we were all wrong about Kyle Pitts in the NFL?
Pitts came into the league with a ton of hype. But after two years, including an injury-shortened 2022, how good will he actually be in the NFL? Pitts has seen enough targets compared to other tight ends in that time, but he had a chance to catch just 64.9% of his targets last year per Fantasy Points Data. If that trend continues with Desmond Ridder, Pitts could be a fantasy dud once again this year.
What if … Michael Thomas stays healthy this season?
Thomas was once the best wideout in fantasy football, but he’s barely played since 2020 (10 games) due to injuries). He was good when he was active last year, though, averaging 17 points. The fantasy community assumes it’s a foregone conclusion that Thomas will get hurt again, but what if he doesn’t? How will that affect everyone’s fantasy darling, Chris Olave, as a popular breakout candidate?
What if … Sean Payton can’t revive Russell Wilson’s value?
Wilson was awful last season, posting the worst fantasy season of his career. Most blame former head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s play calling, but what if it’s just a case of Wilson being past his prime? Payton is expected to come in and right the wrongs, making Wilson a potential bounce-back candidate in fantasy. If Payton can’t work his magic, though, the Broncos could be a fantasy headache again.
