Alex Bregman’s Comfort in Houston Astros Park Might Urge Him To Stay

Alex Bregman might not be able to afford not hitting in the Houston Astros home park as he mulls free agency.

Oct 2, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman (2) runs after hitting a single against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning of game two of the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros are in danger of losing a staple of the franchise this offseason, but a reunion might make the most sense for both sides.

In looking for things to worry about at the top of the current MLB free agent class, CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson noticed a couple of potentially concerning signs about star third baseman Alex Bregman.

The main thing pointed out was how beneficial playing at Minute Maid Park, soon to be Daikin Park, has been for Bregman.

Statcast points out that the former MVP candidate would have at least 30 less career home runs in 17 other ballparks around the league. It is clear that Bregman likes playing in the Astros park and could see some unforeseen struggles elsewhere.

He hit 16 more home runs at home this season than on the road, despite playing nine less games there.

The power that he has brought to the plate over the past few years has actually kept him afloat as his batting average numbers have dropped in this stage of his career.

As he enters the later years of his career, staying in a park that has clearly helped him out could play a huge factor in his decision. It will also likely hurt the some teams that he is interested in playing for, as they could be worried about his play translating.

Another thing to worry about with Bregman, as pointed out by Anderson, is the fact his walk rate plummeted this season. Not even only when he struggled, it was a full-year issue.

Between 2018 and 2023, his lowest walk rate was 11.0%. It was hovering around 13% for the most part and even peaked at 17.2%.

In 2024, that number sunk all the way down to just 6.9%. His strikeout numbers weren't at a career-high, but they were higher than they've been in a while.

He was still able to get a lot of good contact, but his patience at the plate was always a calling card. With that gone and extended struggles at the plate this year, it cannot be ignored when factoring in how much a team wants to pay him.

Obviously, Bregman is still a very valuable player. He just had his first gold glove season and is willing to branch out as a defender if a team needs him to. A steep decline in performance at the plate on a new team wouldn't been too surprising, though.