Astros Could Make High-Upside Bet on Dustin May Despite Major Red Flags

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, free-agent right-hander Dustin May, who posted a 7-9 record with a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts for the Cardinals and Brewers in 2026, is generating interest from the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres and Houston Astros.

May became a free agent after declining his mutual option with Milwaukee after being part of the bullpen that helped win the World Series, and he is now looking for a potential multi-year contract.

Why Could He Be a Good Option for the Astros?

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Dustin May (21). Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I know that 4.70 ERA looks a little high compared to the best standards we saw in the Astros’ rotation this year, with Hunter Brown (3.19 ERA in 107 ⅓ innings), Hayden Wesneski (3.25 ERA in 61 innings) and Peter Lambert (3.82 in 155 ⅔ innings), but it is fair to say that May was much more effective than that result reflects.

In fact, his 3.63 FIP and 3.96 xFIP, his best combined marks in the three seasons of his career in which he has managed to pitch at least 50 innings (2020, 2025 and 2026), tell us a different story about his value as a pitcher.

May’s big problem was basically concentrated in four starts in which he allowed at least six earned runs, including his debut, when he allowed 13 earned runs in a combined 7 ⅓ innings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers.

Therefore, if we analyze his remaining 27 starts, we can find a different picture, as May recorded 16 outings in which he went at least five innings and allowed three runs or fewer. In 12 of them, he allowed two runs or fewer, including a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts in a 3-0 Cardinals win against the Padres on June 15 at Busch Stadium III.

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Dustin May (21). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now, what did cause a little concern was his decline in performance after moving to the Brewers, something that probably influenced his move to the bullpen during the postseason. His HR/FB rate, which had been just 6.3%, jumped to 17.1% with Milwaukee and, although he managed to slightly increase his strikeout rate, the production of hard-hit balls caused his xERA to rise from 3.94 to 6.06.

Even so, May continues to generate expectations as a reinforcement for rotations like Houston’s, especially because of the ability he has shown to overcome his past injuries and provide durability, accumulating 132 ⅓ innings in 2025 and 145 ⅔ this year in 31 starts.

His profile could fit very well as a third starter if the rotation remains headed by Brown and Lambert, helping to ease the crisis the team suffered with secondary arms such as Tatsuya Imai, Kai-Wei Teng and Cristian Javier, who combined for 37 starts, just 152 ⅓ innings and a 5.73 ERA.

Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45). Mandatory Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

May also put several adjustments into motion that could pay off with a six-pitch repertoire. His cutter made a jump from -4 Run Value to +6 from one year to the next, he improved his velocity, placing his sinker in the 50th percentile, and finished in the 55th percentile in K% and BB%, two big steps compared to last season, when he ranked in the 38th and 22nd percentiles, respectively.

For the Astros, May is not my first option, but given that he could be a useful starter and attainable at an estimated $15 million AAV, he seems like an interesting piece to me if Houston is thinking about negotiating with free agents on the market who are not as expensive.

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