Hunter Brown Has Made the Adjustments, but the Astros Aren’t Turning Them Into Wins

Brown is 5-2 in his last 10 starts, but Houston lost three of his five no-decisions.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Hunter Brown hit his glove with his right hand to celebrate the excellent catch by second baseman Nick Allen, who took Matt Olson out of the play. The fifth inning had ended and, once again, Brown did his part of the plan with five scoreless innings, 10 strikeouts for the fifth time in his last 10 starts and just three hits allowed.

On the other hand, the Houston Astros could not respond. Brown left the game with a minimal 1-0 lead thanks to a solo home run by José Altuve in the bottom of the fourth inning against Atlanta Braves left-hander Martín Pérez. Once the bullpen came into action, the Braves turned the score around with a four-run rally in the top of the sixth inning.

The story was repeating itself. It is Brown’s 11th consecutive start in which he has reached at least five innings. During that stretch, he is 5-2 with an improvement to a 2.76 ERA compared to his 4.05 ERA in his first eight starts of this year. However, the Astros have wasted four of his dominant starts without being able to take advantage of the impact of their main rotation ace.

Put in the work.#ChaseTheFight pic.twitter.com/GPFkeOrKFj

— Houston Astros (@astros) September 20, 2026

Before Sunday’s game, Houston’s last at-home game in this regular season, the team was 9-9 in Brown’s starts. In eight of those losses, they scored four or fewer runs. Brown has continued to throw between 90 and 100 pitches in each of his last seven outings, and he has made significant adjustments at this key moment when Houston is playing for the Division lead against the Texas Rangers as the priority, or, if they lose the top spot, at least a spot in the Wild Card Series.

A look at Brown’s significant adjustments

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sunday’s start was the typical outing in the style of the Hunter Brown, who finished third in the Cy Young Award voting last year: a large number of swings and misses, control of the upper part of the strike zone and that ability to attack hitters. Brown began with a strike to 15 of the 21 opponents he faced and got at least one strikeout with five of the seven types of pitches he threw. Three came with the sinker and four-seam fastball, while generating a 53.8% swing-and-miss rate (seven of 13) with his mix of knuckle curveball, cutter and changeup.

If we compare two key stretches that define Brown’s return to dominance, there are very interesting differences between his first eight starts and these last 10.

Hunter Brown’s Key Pitch Changes in His Last 10 Starts. | Baseball Savant

Without a doubt, Brown’s most significant change is in the sinker. In his first eight starts, it was largely a pitch to tie up the hitter. 41.6% of the swings resulted in tied up, but the problem was that it produced just 13% whiffs. As his main pitch, Brown needed to find the upper part of the zone where he has usually dominated and make hitters chase the sinker at the corners of the zone.

The adjustment got underway to the point that, in his last 10 starts, tied up swings dropped to 18.6%, flailed doubled (32.6%) and whiff has risen to 26.4%. That explains part of another result, and it has been the improvement in late swings during this recent stretch. When the sinker reaches this point and breaks hitters’ timing, Brown’s entire arsenal around it becomes more effective thanks to the great contrast of his knuckle curveball, cutter and changeup.

The curve also took an important step, further improving its swing-and-miss rate from 30.5% to 38.7%. As you can see in the table, the four-seam shows another type of evolution. It continues generating a similar whiff rate (23.4%), but Perfect Contact fell from 24.7% to 15.6%. The more Brown’s arsenal works, the smaller the opponents’ margin for error becomes as his pitches create different problems.

The bad news for Brown is that the Astros still cannot take enough advantage of his starts, and the bullpen has wasted the win probability that his dominance is generating. The Astros will face a finish that could seem easy, but in reality, their results against the Athletics and Mariners have been puzzling: against both opponents, the team is 6-14 this season, with a –16 run differential.