Astros Have Bigger Offensive Problem Than Yordan Álvarez’s Absence

Houston’s collapse in contact quality and growing strikeout totals have turned an offensive slump into a problem the Astros can no longer ignore.

Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The last time the Houston Astros scored at least 10 runs in a victory was on Aug. 14, when they defeated the Seattle Mariners 10-7 in the first game of the series at home. They then lost the next two games, 10-5 and 3-2.

Since then, Houston, which has been the most consistent team against opponents playing above .500 all season, is 13-14. But that is only the beginning of a stretch that has become much more concerning: in 11 of those 13 losses, they have scored three runs or fewer. This is part of the reason why the Astros’ offense has collapsed: they lead MLB in Soft% (18.1%) and IFFB% (15.4%), a combination that could not be more damaging, while they have fallen to 25th in Hard% (32.6%), per Statcast.

That large accumulation of weak contact helps explain why Houston’s offense is hitting just .230/.295/.397 with a 92 wRC+ over this stretch. Although pitching inconsistencies have also contributed to part of this negative stretch, the story here is that the Astros still have not taken off enough over the last month.

Before losing for the second consecutive night against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, Houston was 15-15 over its last 30 games, and 11-9 over its last 20. After falling 3-2 on Saturday without being able to take advantage of a quality start from Peter Lambert, who secured six innings of three-run ball with four strikeouts and no walks, the Astros have gone 15-16 in one-run games.

The team’s last major winning streak came in late July and early August, when they put together six consecutive victories with sweeps, the best streak of the season for the team. They first did it on the road against the Los Angeles Angels and then at home, dominating the Texas Rangers in convincing fashion. Houston finished that series with a 2.5-game lead over Texas. Thirty-six games have passed since that moment, and they have not been able to create enough separation: the Rangers (73-76) remain close behind, just two games back.

Isaac Paredes Remains Key for the Astros

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In the middle of the Astros’ negative stretch, Paredes has been the main engine of the offense. On Friday, he doubled in four at-bats, and on Saturday, he opened the scoring with a solo home run in the first inning against left-hander Ian Seymour. It was Paredes’ 20th home run, giving him 20-plus homers for the second consecutive season, a feat he has accomplished in four of his seven major league seasons. In 40 more games than last year, Paredes has reached 83 RBIs — 30 more than in 2025 — and he has done it with a unique style that defines his swing: all 122 of his MLB home runs have been pulled.

Yordan’s absence is exposing a larger offensive problem

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While Yordan Álvarez has fallen off his Triple Crown pace with just three home runs in his last 107 plate appearances and a .253/.383/.437 slash line, Paredes leads the Astros with 21 RBIs over the last 27 games. The Mexican third baseman has not been alone, as Yainer Diaz has been the team’s most productive hitter by wRC+ (160), while Christian Walker (13 RBI), Daulton Varsho (11), and Cam Smith (10) have also contributed to the run production.

However, arriving in Tampa without Yordan, who has been out with discomfort since twisting his right ankle while running the bases last Thursday in Philadelphia, Houston has not been able to produce enough to win with good pitching performances.

And the worst part has not only been the team-wide collapse in contact quality, but also the fact that the Astros have struck out at least 10 times in six of their last 11 games. That stretch includes three of the last four games, two against Philadelphia and Saturday’s game, when Houston hitters struck out 14 times.

The Astros managed to win those last two games in Philadelphia behind strong pitching performances, but overall, in games in which they have struck out at least 10 times, they are 15-31. Only three teams have played above .500 in those games: the Milwaukee Brewers (30-20, .600 W%), the Los Angeles Dodgers (24-16, .600), and the Atlanta Braves (27-23, .540).

With only 13 games left, nothing has been decided for Houston, which needs to get out of this slump and do everything possible to win the division. But to do that, the Astros will need more than Yordan’s return: they will also have to regain their contact quality and reduce the number of plate appearances ending in strikeouts.