Astros Metrics By Month Paint a Grim Picture for Playoff Chase

Astros have posted one month with a positive run differential.

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Astros have been fortunate as far as run differential and OPS differential is concerned in 2026. Their run differential would suggest a team 10-games below .500. However, with a strong bullpen and solid record in close games, the Astros sit at .500.  

It’s been a while since Houston prevailed in a game with ease. The Astros haven’t won a game by more than four runs in 37 games. This is their longest such streak since 2013 when they went 40 games without winning a game by more than four runs.

April: Poor Pitching

Houston’s hitting numbers have steadily decreased throughout the latter portion of the season. They started with a .782 OPS in April but were unable to pair that with decent pitching and therefore failed to win a significant portion of their game. They allowed an .824 OPS to opposing batters in March/April, which came out to a negative 42 points of OPS differential. Their March/April record came out to 12-20.

May: Hitting Struggles

Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker (8) celebrates with shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The pitching improved markedly in May with a .667 OPS against, but the hitting came back down to earth. The Astros hitters produced a .662 OPS, bringing the differential to a negative 5 points of OPS. The team averaged 3.55 runs per game during May with 3.79 allowed. Despite this negative run differential, they still managed a winning record at 15-14.

Average: June

In June, the hitting was better with a .724 OPS but for the third straight month the differential was negative as the pitching allowed a .731 OPS. They scored 4.67 per game and allowed 4.96. The numbers weren’t indicative of the overall record as Houston was prevailing in the close games and losing the blowouts. They won 16 of 27 games in June, good for a .593 win percentage, their best of any month this season.

Clicking In July

In July, shortened by the All-star break, the Astros played in 23 games and won 13, which comes out to a .565 win percentage. This was their only month with a positive run differential. They scored 5.17 and allowed 4.78.

Break Even August

In August, Houston went 14-13 with a 4.22 runs scored and 4.52 runs allowed. Their hitting OPS was just .691 as the pitching improved, but not enough to make up for the hitting drop off. They posted a  .711 OPS against. It all amounted to an average month for the team.

Winning and Losing Close Games in September

Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz (21) Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In September, the Astros are 6-8 but actually have a positive OPS differential (.684 batting vs. .682 pitching) despite scoring one whole run less per game then their opponents. Their bats have been a major let down. This comes down to some tough luck with runners on base for Houston bats and their opponents maximizing their times on base.

Looking through all the numbers, it’s not hard to see why the Astros have struggled to put everything together. The pitching and hitting have rarely been clicking at the same time. The run differential indicates a team that is much worse than Houston’s .500 record. However, this can be erased from the memories of fans with a strong close to the season and a run in the playoffs