Where the Astros' Playoff Odds Stand Heading Into Final Two Weeks of Season

The Astros are still very much in position to potentially make the postseason.

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes is congratulated by shortstop Nick Allen after he hit a two-run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays this past weekend in disappointing fashion on the road, the Houston Astros are still right in the heart of the postseason race.

It has really been a blessing for the Astros to be a part of the American League West division in 2026. Even with an even 75-75 record heading into a crucial mid-week series against the Kansas City Royals, the Astros still sit in first place in the division.

Houston only has a one-game lead over the Texas Rangers prior to Tuesday's game and also has the tiebreaker thanks to winning the Silver Boot for the 10th straight year. It's all set to be an incredibly tight finish to see who makes the postseason as the AL West division winner.

Given the Astros’ play in such a division, their postseason chances are still quite healthy.

Astros Postseason Odds

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski talks with catcher Yainer Diaz on the mound during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros have a 77.2 percent chance to make the playoffs as of Tuesday morning, according to FanGraphs. Houston also has a 74.2 percent chance to win the division. The first-round bye is still on the table, even though it's only at 21.7 percent.

The good news for the Astros is that their remaining strength of schedule is .484. Besides the Royals, that features road series against the Athletics and Seattle Mariners. Both of them have losing records.

However, the Astros have struggled immensely against them both. Houston has just a 4-5 record against the A's while it has an even poorer 2-9 record against the M's.

On the other hand, the Rangers have a .513 strength of schedule remaining. FanGraphs has projected the Astros to finish with an 81-81 record at exact .500 with the Rangers finishing just one game behind at 80-82. No team has ever won a division in MLB with that record.

Baseball Reference seems to be much more confident about the Astros as they have given them an 87 percent chance to make the postseason. It lists Houston's division chances at 85.3 percent and a bye at 22.4 percent.

Not only that, the Astros are also given a 54.6 percent chance to make the ALDS and a 23.3 percent chance to make the ALCS. Both sites have given the Astros around a 4 percent chance of winning the World Series.

It seems like the Astros could very well be heading to a .500 record, although a best possible record of 84-78 has been listed on Reference. That would mean the Astros go 9-3 from this point. Given how poor the division has been and what the odds are saying, a .500 winner could be very real.