Astros Need More Than Yainer Diaz to Fix Struggling Bottom of Lineup

It has been like an oasis for opposing pitchers. When they get through the first five spots in the lineup, it feels like a relief to reach the middle and bottom of the lineup every day against the Houston Astros. It has been a problem all season. The hitters Houston has used from the sixth through ninth spots in the lineup have the worst on-base percentage (.274) in baseball this year, rank second with the lowest batting average (.215), and third in OPS (.629) and wRC+ (76).

The gap has grown even more since last September 1, with the batting average falling to .174 and the on-base percentage to .223, the worst marks in all of MLB over that span. The Astros are one game behind the Texas Rangers and will face the decisive week of the regular season. So their best option is to win the division, because if they do not, they could be left out of the postseason in the Wild Card race.

Among almost all the contenders still fighting to qualify for the playoffs, Houston appears to have an ideal finish, as they will face the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners on the road. However, this year’s results and the way Houston’s offense has reached this final week of the regular season are leaving many doubts.

The Astros are trying to produce, but they have depended too much on Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve in recent games. The only notable force at the bottom of the lineup is Yainer Diaz, who has looked in great form during this close of the season. With less than an average of 3.7 runs per game, the Astros have constantly played under pressure, and the bullpen has not been able to be consistent either.

The other turning point here is that Houston has played to a combined 6-14 record with a minus-16 run differential against the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners this season.

The Bottom of the Lineup Needs More Than Yainer’s Contribution

Yainer Diaz is also having a good September, batting .357 (20-for-56) with three home runs, seven RBIs and a 144 wRC+ in September—his best mark in any month this year. He has multiple hits in eight of his last 12 starts since September 4, and his home run last Sunday against the Atlanta Braves was the 57th of his career as a catcher for the Astros, tying Martin Maldonado for the third-most home runs as a catcher in club history.

But the big difference Yainer has made, especially in this second half of the season, is in his solitary consistency at the bottom of the lineup. He is one of the few cases that escape this trend we have talked about regarding Houston’s offensive problems getting on base or producing among hitters in the sixth through ninth spots.

Astros Hitters Batting 6th–9th | FanGraphs.

As we can see here in this report I researched at FanGraphs, Diaz went from 99 to 108 in wRC+ since September 1, although his K% increased from 17.1% to 29.2%. Alongside him, Taylor Trammell is the next hitter in the rankings who has achieved some consistency in production, slightly raising his wRC+ from 89 to 99, although his strikeout rate also increased somewhat.

The most pronounced declines appear in the performances of Cam Smith and Christian Vázquez. Smith went from a .266 percentage that was deficient to a terrible .220, with many more strikeouts and less production.

Vázquez is not a starter in the lineup, but he has had a more marked decline in on-base percentage. He has been an aggressive hitter throughout his career, with more defensive strength than what he can provide with his swing. However, seeing that drop in his wRC+ from 67 to -70, even with just 13 plate appearances since September 1, sounds like one of the safest outs at the bottom of the lineup.

Houston, of course, has needed more from Diaz and Smith at the bottom of the batting order, especially when they come to the plate with runners on base, but hitters such as Christian Walker and LaMonte Wade Jr. have also fallen off.

Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker (8). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Walker’s power seems as if it has vanished, especially now that he is one home run away from 200 in MLB. His OPS plummeted from .466 to .390 and his few offensive successes are not making an impact like they did at the beginning of the season for the Astros. It is not a mistake: Walker has not performed the same when batting sixth, seeing his wRC+ fall from 28 to 7 in this latest stretch of the season.

After being swept for the second time in the last three series, by the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves, Houston needs to enter a “playoffs” mode, and that requires an adjustment beyond simply having only some players able to do the work they need.

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