This Houston Astros Problem Could Define the AL West Division Race

At the beginning of September, the Houston Astros had the best record in the league (28-15) against teams that were playing above .500.

Since September 5, they have played to 9-10, so they have fallen to third place at 37-25. They are still one of the three best teams in games against teams with winning records this year, but that same record takes us to a very concerning negative point: against teams that are below .500, the Astros fall to a 39-51 record.

Depending on how you analyze it, this could be quite controversial. Playing well against the top teams in the game creates very valuable confidence in any team. However, losing against the worst teams is not exactly what a possible contender needs.

While it is a positive point to win against quality teams, great contenders need a balance, since the worst thing that could happen to them is to lower their level of play until falling below .500 against the worst opponents in the game.

The Astros have had that major problem this season, and it is not just about the losses, but about how the imbalance in general has led to multiple series losses.

Houston’s offense against teams that are below .500 has the third-worst batting average in the league in those games at .235, the fifth-lowest slugging percentage (.388), and they are seventh with the lowest average of runs scored per game (4.4).

Part of that chaos has been seen especially since the beginning of August, a stretch in which Houston has lost five of its six series against teams that are below .500, all with a 1-2 record against the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.

The problem that Houston still hasn’t solved

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3). Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The most recent inconsistencies have been at the beginning of this week against the Royals. The Astros won 4-2 last Tuesday, but on Wednesday they fell 5-2. On Tuesday, Jeremy Peña appeared back with two home runs and Yordan Álvarez finished it with his 39th home run of the season so Houston could defeat Michael Wacha.

However, no other hitter has appeared. Peña is 6-for-8 and Yordan 2-for-6, combining for 8-for-14 with four of the team’s six runs scored in the first two games. The rest of the offense is 4-for-41 with 10 of the 12 strikeouts the team had going into Thursday's finale.

Precisely Yordan and Peña are the most consistent hitters against teams that are below .500, producing 180 OPS+ and 121, respectively. Yordan has 23 home runs and 60 RBIs in those games, followed by Isaac Paredes, who has 50. Christian Walker (37) and Cam Smith (32) follow them on the RBI list, but both have been inconsistent with OPS+ below 80.

The worst hitter of all is Daulton Varsho, who is hitting just .167/.241/.236 and 31 OPS+ against the teams that the Astros’ offense should take the most advantage of.

The pitching has also been very inconsistent, and is in fourth place in the league with a 4.91 ERA. The only teams with a worse winning percentage (.433) than Houston against teams that are playing below .500 are the Athletics (32-50, .390) and the Angels (28-43, .394).

Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows (50). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Part of Mike Burrows’ major problems (2-8, 6.88) came in that context, allowing 17 home runs and a .895 OPS against teams below .500. Spencer Arrighetti finished in Houston this season with 1-4 and 6.81, and Tatsuya Imai (4-3, 6.22) and Kai-Wei Teng (1-5, 6.13) have also recorded ERAs above 6.00. Cristian Javier (1-5, 5.85) and Peter Lambert (2-5, 4.44) have not been entirely reliable either, and Brayan Abreu (1-3, 4.79) has also gone through difficult moments throughout the season.

The pitchers who have maintained a level of competitive dominance have been Hunter Brown (2-3, 2.98 in 11 starts with 10.8 K/9) as the only member of the rotation, Joshe Hader (3-0, 0.64 with 16 saves and 11.1 K/9), along with Steven Okert (5-1, 2.08 in 44 relief appearances) and AJ Blubaugh (4-2, 3.23).

The Athletics and the Mariners combine for 42 games below .500, although the most unexpected decline is Seattle’s this season. It is not a stretch of the schedule that seems like a major challenge for the Astros, but you already know their recent history. Houston lost 1-2 in the last two series it played against the Athletics and the Mariners.

If they cannot get the finish in that stretch, the Astros could lose the division pennant and, perhaps, the Wild Card qualification as well.

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