Astros Playoff Odds With Three Games Left: Latest AL West Clinching Scenarios

It's going to be an exciting last few days of the regular season for the Houston Astros. Given the record of 79-80 after Thursday night's series-opening win over the Athletics would usually not be good enough to be in postseason contention, the Astros are quite fortunate to be in the American League West division.

The Astros are locked in a dead heat for the AL West title and the No. 3 seed in the AL playoffs with the Texas Rangers as a result. Both teams are tied for first, but the Astros hold the tiebreaker thanks to having won the Silver Boot series for the 10th straight season.

The opportunity to get back into October baseball after missing the postseason last year for the first time since 2016 looms. It's just a matter of whether the Astros can survive the next three games.

While every game left is a must-win for the Astros against the Athletics, the results of how the Rangers do is just as important. Here's the latest playoff odds and the clinching scenarios for Houston.

Astros Odds Holding Up For Now

Houston Astros center fielder Lucas Spence celebrates with second baseman Jose Altuve after the game against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros have a 71 percent chance of winning the division as of early Friday, according to FanGraphs. The Rangers obviously have the remaining 29 percent as the Seattle Mariners were just officially eliminated.

That's still very high, although the unpredictability of both teams and how poor they play at times makes it very hard to say.

The Astros have all three games left at the A's, who have the third worst record in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Rangers are also on the road against the Minnesota Twins, who have a 75-84 record. That isn't too far off from Texas. Additionally, the Twins are leading the season series 3-0 heading into the three-game set.

The Astros' .423 strength of schedule compared to the Rangers' .484 is likely why the FanGraphs numbers are showing what they are. In reality, the Astros are just 5-5 vs the A's this year and it won't be easy at all.

FanGraphs shows the projected Astros win total of 81-81. The Rangers are also projected at 81-81, which means Houston would make it due to the tiebreaker. This would be the lowest division winner record in MLB history.

Meanwhile, Baseball Reference gives the Astros a 74.3 percent chance of winning the division. It then also gives the Astros a 33.3 percent chance of advancing to the ALDS.

The latest AL West clinching scenarios for the Astros aren't too complex. Obviously if Houston wins out and goes 82-80, it will make it due to having the tiebreaker even if the Rangers will all their games.

If the Astros win their next two games on Friday and Saturday and the Rangers lose on either Friday or Saturday, Houston would also clinch the division. The Rangers wouldn't be able to overcome a one game lead on the final day of the season.

As long as the Rangers at least match the number of Astros losses, it will be Houston that goes through.

Add us as a preferred source on Google