Where Astros' Playoff Odds Stand With Just One Week Left in the Season

It was a disastrous weekend series for the Houston Astros, who have now tumbled out of first place in the American League West division.

The Astros are now two games under .500 at 77-79 and were in a solid position before the sweep against the Atlanta Braves. Houston has maintained just around a .500 record for the past two months, and this is the lowest it has dropped since July 27.

Even with all the struggles lately, the Astros are still remarkably in the postseason race thanks to how poor the AL West has been this year.

At the moment, the Astros are trailing the Texas Rangers by one game in the division. The Rangers are 78-78, and the Astros also have the head-to-head over them. As long as Houston can match the record, it'll win the AL West.

With how tight the standings are, the Astros can still save their season in the last week if they perform well and get some luck from the Rangers.

Here are the current Astros' postseason odds as of Monday.

Astros Playoff Odds

Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz is congratulated by right fielder Cam Smith (11) after hitting a home run to right-center field. Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros have a 45.6 percent chance of making the playoffs at this point, according to FanGraphs. While that number has dropped significantly from last week, it's still close to 50. That means it's still a genuine possibility.

The projection to win the division is also similar at 44.2 percent. The Rangers have a 55.6 percent chance to win the AL West and a 56.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. Last week, the Rangers were much lower, demonstrating how quickly the chances can change with a couple of games.

Meanwhile, Baseball Reference shows a different story where the Astros have a 53 percent chance of making the postseason and a 52 percent chance of winning the division. It projects both the Astros and Rangers to end up at 81-81, which would give the division to Houston.

FanGraphs has the Astros finishing 80-82 with the Rangers at 81-81. The Astros have decreased their odds by 34 percent over the past week, according to Baseball Reference.

The strength of schedule still favors the Astros, who have it at .464 compared to .500 for the Rangers. That honestly does not mean much, given that the Astros have both the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics in the last six games of the year.

Houston has struggled mightily against both, with an abysmal 2-9 record against the Mariners and a 4-5 mark against the A's, one of the worst teams this season.

These are both road series, and the Astros have done better away from home this year with a 38-37 record compared to a final 39-42 mark at home.

While they might be easier matchups on paper, that's not the case based on the head-to-head. Meanwhile, the Rangers face the Mets for a three-game series, who are the third-worst team in the National League. Texas ends with a road series against the Minnesota Twins, who are already eliminated.

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