Hunter Brown Is Starting to Look Like the Astros’ Ace Again

It is not easy for the Houston Astros to fight to win the division without their ace, Hunter Brown, leading the way. Brown has gone through a complicated season trying to make adjustments and overcome injuries and inconsistencies. Now, the best news for the Astros is that Brown seems to be in his best moment to compete.

His last start was the best version of the entire season, with 10 strikeouts in 6.2 innings and one run allowed against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Brown has allowed only two runs in 12 1/3 innings during his last two outings, with 14 strikeouts and only four walks.

When we see more strikeouts than innings pitched and Brown limits walks against the opposition, that is when he is offering the elite version of himself that has defined him as a pitcher throughout his entire career. Until two starts ago, his strikeouts still did not exceed his innings. That story is beginning to change with the adjustments to the main weapons in his arsenal. We will get there in a minute, after looking at this interesting evolution of Brown.

This is how he has pitched in his last seven starts and the previous seven:

Last 7 GS: 1-0, 35 1/3 innings, 3.57 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 5 HR against 153 opponents.

Previous 7 GS: 1-1, 35 1/3 innings, 4.58 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 6.1 BB/9, 5 HR against 155 opponents.

What is evident: in the same number of innings, which shows the same durability, Brown has recently pitched more effectively, dominating with more strikeouts, fewer walks and continues allowing a similar rate of 3.2 HR/BF%.

In both stretches, the Astros have finished with a 4-3 record in their seven starts. Let’s now analyze a little beyond those peripheral numbers, since there are some very interesting details about how Brown has been battling on the mound.

I love this new tool from Baseball Savant, as it brings us closer to a key point about how each pitcher’s pitches are working. In Brown’s case, the changeup, one of his main weapons, has generated a high Flawed Swing% rate compared to last season. However, opponents produced a .685 xSLG in July and .532 in August, and his whiff rate has dropped from 37.5% to 15.0%. In other words, in terms of decision-making, the changeup has not been fulfilling the function that Brown needs when it comes to deciding at-bats.

Something similar happened with his four-seam fastball and sinker last month. In both cases, the Perfect Swing% has not had major changes compared with the results of 2025. However, Brown just recorded his least dominant month with both pitches, allowing four home runs combined.

His knuckle curveball and slider remain strong assets in his pitching repertoire. If Brown can regain control of his fastball and if his sinker returns to the effectiveness it displayed in his last start, these adjustments could lead to even more interesting performances this month.

Brown Needs to Carry This Version of His Arsenal Into Chicago

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58). Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Brown has won his last five outings against the Chicago White Sox, posting a 2.27 ERA with more strikeouts (36) than hits allowed (24) and only six walks. He is coming off a start in which he threw seven consecutive scoreless innings with the same number of strikeouts and only two hits against Chicago on July 25. The Astros need that great impact to be repeated in this series finale, and for Brown to establish himself as the main ace of the rotation.

All statistics were verified using Statcast from Baseball Savant.

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