Astros Free Agent Framber Valdez Facing Reality Check in Slow Market

The Houston Astros' former ace remains unsigned deep into January, and the gap between his expectations and reality keeps growing.

Framber Valdez entered free agency looking for a long-term deal that reflected his status as one of baseball's most consistent lefties, but the market has delivered a harsh lesson about age and leverage.

MLB insider Jim Bowden appeared on Foul Territory and explained the situation bluntly. Valdez's camp initially sought a six or seven-year contract when free agency began, but that's not happening at age 32. Teams simply aren't willing to commit that long to a pitcher entering his mid-30s.

"I think when free agency started, they were looking for a 6/7-year deal. He's not going to get that," Bowden said.

"I think when free agency started, they were looking for a 6/7-year deal. He's not going to get that."

Framber Valdez might have to settle for a short-term, high AAV deal, says @JimBowdenGM. pic.twitter.com/rdpEbNMjdj
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 19, 2026

Bowden doesn't think Valdez will even reach a fifth year on his next contract. He believes the lefty might have to accept a shorter deal with higher annual value and opt-out clauses. That strategy would let him re-enter the market next winter without draft pick compensation attached, potentially improving his leverage if he performs well.

The numbers support a strong payday. Valdez posted a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings in 2025, striking out 187 batters in 31 starts. Over eight years with Houston, he went 81-52 with a 3.36 ERA and won a World Series in 2022. His durability stands out in an era where starters struggle to stay healthy, and he's logged at least 28 starts in each of the last four seasons.

But teams have concerns beyond the stats. Valdez's hard-hit rate raises red flags in certain front offices, even though he generates ground balls at an elite clip. Some evaluators view him as a number two starter rather than an ace, which changes the financial equation entirely. The draft pick compensation attached to his qualifying offer creates another hurdle, making trade targets more appealing to some clubs.

The Astros moved on by signing Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai to a three-year deal. Houston's largest contract ever went to Jose Altuve at $151 million in 2018, and the team decided against approaching that precedent for a pitcher.

Framber Valdez's Shrinking Market

Sep 7, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) looks down as he walks off the field during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles have maintained consistent interest throughout the winter and met with Valdez's camp at the GM Meetings back in November. They need a frontline starter after missing the playoffs, and Valdez fits that profile. The New York Mets could work for a shorter deal, though recent reports suggest hesitation about lengthy pitcher commitments from their front office.

The San Francisco Giants made sense earlier in the offseason but reportedly balked at the required investment. They added Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle to their rotation instead, moves that signal a different approach. The Chicago Cubs were frequently mentioned before signing Alex Bregman.

Dylan Cease's seven-year, $210 million deal with Toronto may have actually hurt Valdez's leverage. Some insiders believe Valdez saw that number and expected similar money, given his track record. Instead, it set a market ceiling that teams aren't willing to approach for a 32-year-old with questions about his advanced metrics.

With spring training approaching and Houston's rotation taking shape without him, Valdez needs to decide soon. Take a shorter deal and bet on himself, or keep waiting for security that isn't materializing.

Framber Valdez's Shrinking Market

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