Astros Have Ideal Top of the Rotation Free Agent Pitching Target This Winter

A clear Framber Valdez replacement that the Houston Astros should target is someone they went after at the trade deadline.

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

All signs are pointing to the Houston Astros losing star left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez. If that ends up being the case, replacing him at the top of the rotation is not going to be easy.

They could look to snag Brandon Woodruff from the Milwaukee Brewers, but there is another option that could be a more dependable move should Woodruff remain with the Brewers. Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres is a name that will be sought after in free agency, and he is someone whom the Astros could swing for to replace Valdez.

While it won't come cheap, signing Cease would be a no-brainer for Houston at the top of a rotation that will need to be better next season if they are going to get back to the playoffs.

Astros Should Target Dylan Cease

David Frerker-Imagn Images

Cease was linked to the Astros at the trade deadline back in July, but nothing materialized. Now that he is a free agent, it makes sense for Houston to make a hard push for him.

Valdez received a qualifying offer from the Astros, which makes his free agency path to a new team somewhat harder, but you would have to think that a contender that's desperate for pitching to get them over the top will still look to get a deal done. The New York Mets and Boston Red Sox are two teams that would not hesitate to try and land Valdez.

Cease is 29 years old and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2024 after going 14-11 in 189.1 innings with a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts.

He had a 4.2 WAR, his second-best since 2022 with the Chicago White Sox, and threw a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals. This past season, he saw a dip in his numbers with an 8-12 record with a 4.55 ERA, but he still struck out 215 batters in 168 innings.

ESPN has projected Cease to get a five-year, $145 million contract that would pay him $29 million a season. They have Valdez projected to get a six-year deal for $168 million and $28 million a year.

Pairing Cease with Hunter Brown in 2026 and beyond is certainly something the Astros would like to do if Valdez walks. Signing Cease, who ESPN called a right-handed version of Blake Snell in several ways, makes a lot of sense for Houston, and targeting him this offseason should be a priority to slot at the top of the rotation.