The Biggest Free-Agent Mistake the Houston Astros Must Avoid This Winter

Houston will have to decide how to distribute its depth around Carlos Correa, but there is one piece it should not sacrifice.

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes (15). Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Depth, in a way, has been a pleasant problem for the Houston Astros for some time since Isaac Paredes and Carlos Correa joined the roster, in a return to the organization after having played four seasons with the Minnesota Twins.

Having Paredes and Correa opened many questions about how the Astros would resolve playing time for everyone, assuming that Jeremy Pena had become the Astros’ starting shortstop since Correa left the team in 2022. The solution, at least while Correa was healthy during the team’s first 36 games before ending up injured for the rest of the season on May 4, was to give Pena less playing time.

Correa started 20 of his 32 games at shortstop, including Opening Day against the Angels, while Pena played only 10 games at shortstop after suffering a hamstring strain that sent him to the injured list on April 11; he could not return until May 18. During that stretch of games, Isaac Paredes handled third base most of the time.

The adjustment for Houston when Pena earned the starting role was to move Correa to third base, using Paredes as the designated hitter and Yordan Alvarez in left field. But during that stretch of only 15 games in which Correa and Pena were available, it was clear that Pena did not work and had a hard time finding stability, beginning with a slump at the plate and some defensive lapses.

In those 10 games, he posted an offensive line of just .256/.304/.349, with no home runs or RBIs, and an 85 wRC+ in his first 46 plate appearances. After Correa’s injury and regaining the full-time starting role at shortstop when he returned from the injured list, Pena improved considerably offensively, finishing the season with 22 home runs, 56 RBIs and a 124 wRC+. However, his fWAR fell from 5.8 in 2025 to 3.4, mainly because of his defensive regression, the point that could most complicate Pena’s future in Houston.

The Mistake the Astros Should Avoid This Winter

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I will start by saying that I love Pena, but the Astros will have to make a decision about what would be best for their future. Correa is under team control through 2028, so any plan has to start with how Houston needs to build the team around him.

We know Correa’s injury history, and now I don’t want to imagine what would have happened if, after his departure for the rest of 2026 due to injury, the Astros had not had Pena to replace him. However, between Altuve (-9) and Pena (-5), Houston had one of the worst defensive combinations around second base, and that has not been a minor problem for the Astros.

Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1). Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If Correa is healthy and can play around 120 to 125 games, his average during the time he played for Minnesota, the defense would have fewer complications. Then, we know the leadership and what Correa can bring offensively, who is still an above-average hitter in MLB. That adjustment would leave Paredes as the third baseman then Pena would not be part of the equation.

I still believe Houston will probably prefer to keep finding playing time and take advantage of another year of Pena, or at least while the team remains in contention when the 2027 trade deadline arrives, enthusiastically assuming that we will have baseball next season and that there will not be a lockout that delays the start of the 2027 season.

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes (15). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros can do it, but considering both options, I still believe the mistake they should not make is letting Paredes go, who has shown great stability both defensively — he is not a brilliant player with the caliber to win a Gold Glove, but he is above average — and with his bat. And, of course, in that case, Pena would then be a perfect option to get a good return to strengthen the team, especially with a player who can be versatile and fill roles in the infield and outfield.