Astros Face a Dangerous Royals Test as Offensive Problems Continue to Mount

The Houston Astros return home to begin a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. Houston is 75-75 and urgently needs to get out of the offensive slump the team has been going through over the last 28 games.

In that span, since last August 14, the Astros have the worst on-base percentage (.292), BABIP (.265) and the second-lowest batting average (.224) in the American League.

Houston scored just eight runs during the three games in Tampa Bay, which comes out to an average of 2.7 runs per game, more than one run below the 3.7 they have produced over the last 28 games.

In this negative stretch for the team, Yordan Álvarez arrives in one of the worst moments in his pursuit of the Triple Crown, batting .250/.385/.432 with just three home runs and nine RBIs in his last 109 plate appearances.

Even so, his presence in the lineup remains key. Yordan has hit .500 with two home runs, six RBIs and just one strikeout in 14 plate appearances this season against the Royals.

Despite Kansas City being a disappointment this year, it has shown that it can be an uncomfortable opponent for Houston. The Astros won two of three games in June, 10-8 and 8-7, but suffered a 4-0 shutout in the third game.

Michael Wacha, an Enigma for Houston

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44). Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Royals right-hander has a 3.25 ERA in 182 2/3 innings and has allowed 24 home runs this season. Those are good numbers considering he is often pitching while dealing with the Royals’ offensive unproductivity, but they are far from illustrating the excellence of Wacha’s most recent version. In his last seven starts, he is 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in 44 1/3 innings, with 36 strikeouts.

That stretch includes all of his starts since August, and batters have hit just .130 against his cutter, .140 against the changeup and .214 against the four-seam fastball.

If we add the offense against Wacha’s lurking slider, we get another low average, at just .133.

In his seven outings since August, Wacha has pitched at least five innings and, in five of them, has pitched six or more. He has four games in that same stretch in which he has allowed no more than one run.

One good piece of news for Houston is that there are several hitters who have interesting track records against him. Yordan is 2-for-7, but with a double and a home run. Christian Walker is 5-for-11, with two doubles and a home run. Christian Vázquez is 6-for-13. Isaac Paredes, who is 0-for-7 against the Royals this year, is 3-for-12 against Wacha, with a double, a home run and three walks. Jeremy Peña is 2-for-5, with a walk.

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This time, the Astros will have to take advantage of that history again. They will need hitters who are struggling at the plate, such as Jeremy Peña, Cam Smith and Daulton Varsho, to contribute.

Since August 14, Peña’s OPS has fallen to .610, and both Smith and Varsho are batting below .200, at .173 and .198, respectively.

On the other hand, Wacha has been a tormentor in his last three appearances against Houston, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, allowing just 12 hits and only two earned runs.

Offensive support will be key to contribute in Hunter Brown’s start, as he has not fared well in his last five outings. Brown is 1-2 with an 8.82 ERA in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch, although he has shown more dominance in his two most recent appearances, corresponding to the last two seasons against Kansas City.

The last time he pitched against Kansas City at home was on August 24, 2024, and he held them to two hits while allowing a pair of unearned runs over six innings.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58). Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Before his five-inning outing with seven hits allowed and five runs — four of them earned — Brown had posted a 2.86 ERA in five starts since August 11, with 30 strikeouts and 14 walks in 28 1/3 innings.

His outings could have been more effective because of his high walk rate, but in his last three appearances, Brown has 24 strikeouts with just three walks in 17 2/3 innings.

A key point here is that the Astros have allowed him to throw 90 or more pitches, and Brown has made adjustments to his pitches, leaving opponents with a 52% ground-ball rate.

Brown’s potential and one of the most consistent bullpens in the league will be there, but if the Astros’ offense cannot wake up, their recent problems at the plate could move them away from the top of the division in the race to reach October.

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