Two Years Later, the Astros Are Still Searching for Answers in the Outfield

Cam Smith is progressing, but Houston needs much more.

Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith (11). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We have been talking about this since the first half of the season, but the team has not been able to solve it. The Houston Astros have a real problem with their outfielders, and it did not start in the 2026 season. “Real problem” means much more than performance in this context for Houston, for two key reasons: first, they have had only one outfielder with qualified at-bats over the last two seasons combined, which should be at least 1,004 plate appearances.

That player is Cam Smith, a prospect we will talk a little more about later. Smith has played 291 games over the last two seasons and recorded 1,061 plate appearances, with an 88 wRC+ that does not really tell the whole story about his improvements in the recent season. After Smith, the player who averaged the most plate appearances was Jake Meyers with 267 and a total of 534 over the last two years.

The next 17 outfielders who saw action with the Astros in this span did not surpass 500 PA, but here is a bigger problem for the roster: of the eight who have recorded at least 150 PA, only half will be secured, since Daulton Varsho and LaMonte Wade Jr. will be free agents at the end of the season, and Mauricio Dubon and Jesus Sanchez are no longer part of the team.

OF Houston Astros (2025-2026) | FanGraphs.

Time has shown that letting Dubon go was a big mistake for Houston, and that in the end they have not been able to solve their problems finding consistency in their outfielders beyond the contribution Smith has made over the last two seasons. I recently wrote about the importance of retaining Varsho, who could fill a big hole even if Meyers is healthy.

As for Sanchez, I think it was clear how inconsistent he was. Houston gave him an opportunity last year and his swing delivered nothing, batting an unsettling .199/.269/.342, with a 72 wRC+ and a negative –1.3 Def. Sanchez is under the control of the Arizona Diamondbacks after being designated for assignment by the Blue Jays on September 11.

A Look at Cam Smith’s Progress

Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith (11). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When I analyze Smith, it is impossible not to see all his potential, and I can only think about the huge leap he could make as soon as his next season if he takes a step forward in his plate discipline. Pitch recognition and the desperate way he continues to chase have prevented a greater explosion of his potential. Something improved in 2026. It was his Chase Contact% rate, from 46.6% to 50.9%, and he did it within a similar range of swings.

But Smith is still too aggressive at the plate. I know it is his nature, and it is difficult to reach the level of hitters like Yordan Alvarez, but his percentiles leave the most interesting alerts about where he should change his approach in the batter’s box. Smith finished in the 12th percentile in Batting in the 2026 season, being an elite baserunner with an 85 in Base Running and an above-average fielder, finishing in the 65th percentile in Fielding.

Where were the biggest breakdowns? Yes, in his terrible rating, finishing in the 24th percentile in Whiff, 20th in K% and 29th in BB%. Smith’s swing can generate more than occasional power, and we saw it throughout the season. I still remember a key home run he hit to help the Astros win the series 2-1 late in the season in Philadelphia, devouring a devastating split-finger from Jhoan Duran—by the way, Duran has allowed only three home runs against his split-finger in 240 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

That at-bat revealed two key points about Smith: what he can accomplish when he stays focused on making contact with the ball, combined with his impressive bat speed, which finished in the 99th percentile in the Major Leagues this year. As for the hopes of increasing his power, Smith gave another very interesting signal, and it was that his No Doubter% rate improved from 55.6 to 68.5, which pairs with his progress from the 31st to the 74th percentile in Barrel%.

Smith’s improvements have been considerable at 23-years-old, and his game can still take a step up in every sense. However, Houston needs much more from other outfielders, and over the last two years the answer has been a disappointment.