2 Blue Jays Fan Favorites Could Reach Free Agency Sooner Under MLB Proposal
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In a hot stove season already filled with uncertainty, throw another log on the fire.
The owners' latest proposal to the MLB Players Association included agreeing to the union's May proposal to allow some players to become free agents after five years of service time instead of the current six.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com shared the specifics:
MLB will accept the MLBPA’s May 27 proposal to reduce the period of reserve to five years for 30-year-old players (subject to the club’s right to sign the player to a one-year contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players), decreasing the reserve period below six years for the first time since it was introduced in 1976. This past year, 48% of players with five years of service time would have reached free agency a year earlier under this provision than in the past Collective Bargaining Agreement.Mark Feinsand, MLB.com
The owners agreeing to reduce the reserve clause period is like a kid asking for fewer Christmas gifts,
Of course, there is a catch. This proposed change was part of a broader proposal that included a salary cap and floor. While the players' union has unequivocally said it will not agree to a cap, earlier access to free agency is now on the table as something owners are willing to do, which increases the likelihood that this change will eventually make it into a bargaining agreement.
Were this proposal to become a reality it would impact the Blue Jays in two primary ways:
1). Some Blue Jays will become free agents a year earlier.
2). Other teams might be more willing to trade players who would be eligible for free agency a year sooner.
Which Blue Jays Players Would Be Free Agents Sooner?
For a player with five years of service time to be eligible for free agency, he must turn 30 before November 1st. To be credited with a service year, a player must spend 172 days or more on either the active roster or the injured list.
The free agency timeline of the following Blue Jays players would be impacted:
Player | Season After Which Player is Eligible for FA Under Current Rules | Season After Which Player Would Be Eligible For FA Under Proposed New Rules |
|---|---|---|
Ernie Clement | 2028 | 2027 |
Josh Smith | 2028 | 2027 |
Bowden Francis | 2029 | 2028 |
Nathan Lukes | 2030 | 2029 |
Louis Varland | 2030 | 2029 |
Davis Schneider | 2030 | 2029 |
Jose Soriano and Spencer Arrighetti would not be impacted because they will be under 30 when they hit five years of service time. Addison Barger would also not be impacted, missing it by 11 days because his birthday is November 12th.
Note that these dates assume players qualify for a year of service time in each upcoming year. To qualify for service time, a player has to spend 172 days on either the active roster or the MLB injured list.
Clement's name has occasionally surfaced in trade rumors, and if he were a free agent after 2027 instead of 2028, Toronto might be more willing to trade him, though they would also get less in return.
Varland, a candidate for AL Reliever of the Year, and Clement are the biggest names here, with Clement having the bigger short-term impact.
Smith and Schneider have been mentioned as possible non-tenders later this month, so their inclusion may be moot.
Which Players Might Be More Available in Trades Because They Can Become Free Agents Sooner?
The flip side for the Blue Jays is that other teams may be more willing to trade players who have fewer years of team control before hitting free agency. Superstars are unlikely to be available because most debut in their early 20s, so they will be eligible for free agency before 30. All-Stars like C.J. Abrams debuted in their early 20s, so this rule change wouldn't apply to them.
If a late-blooming star player is eligible a year earlier, teams can sign them to a one-year contract for the average of the top 125 salaries.
This might even further accelerate the trend of clubs buying out players' free-agent years.
That said, some quality players will still hit free agency sooner and at a younger age.
One of this year's hottest free agents, Randy Arozarena would have been a free agent after last season under the newly proposed system. He would have been a free agent at 30 instead of 31 and likely would have gotten a larger contract.
Players Who Would Be Free Agents After 2027 instead of 2028
Overall, relievers will benefit most from the rule, as they tend to debut later in the Majors. An estimated 70-0% of relievers would be eligible for free agency after their fifth year, versus around 40% for starters and position players.
Some of the bigger position player names who could be free agents after next season, instead of 2028, that might interest the Blue Jays are Jarren Duran (BOS), Jake McCarthy (COL), Jake Burger (TEX), and Vinnie Pasquantino (KC). The latter two would be options at DH only since Vladdy mans first base.
McCarthy primarily plays left field, though his strong 2026 numbers were inflated because he played half his games in Colorado.
Duran slumped badly in 2026, but was one of the better players in baseball in 2024 and could be a good buy-low, change-of-scenery candidate in a crowded Boston outfield.
On the mound, Rays closer Bryan Baker and starter Ryan Pepiot would be among the bigger names.
Players Who Would Be Eligible for FA After 2028 instead of 2029
For this winter, the more interesting group could be players for whom teams have two years of control instead of three remaining.
Small-market teams in particular tend to trade players in the offseason when they have two years before free agency, so as to increase the return.
On the pitching side, the Padres would be hit hardest by having control only of Mason Miller and Jeremiah Estrada through 2028. As a contending club that may already lose free agent reliever Adrian Morejon, the Padres are unlikely to shop Miller or Estrada. Brewers reliever D.L. Hall would also qualify.
The Mariners, however, might shop a different Miller - Bryce - who they would only control for two more seasons, given their pitching depth and need for offense.
The list includes more interesting hitters, including Rays outfielder Jonathan Aranda, Marlins OF Kyle Stowers, 2B/SS Otto Lopez, and Twins utility man Kody Clemens. Stowers and Lopez could be particularly interesting trade candidates for Toronto, and the penny-pinching Marlins are said to be willing to move Lopez. This could reduce the price.
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for On SI. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.