Blue Jays Playoff Odds: Where Toronto Stands Before Game 2 vs. Rangers
In this story:
The Toronto Blue Jays are running out of time. Although they have fought their way back into the playoff picture, their chances are still not guaranteed. Losing two of three games against the Detroit Tigers was unfortunate, but losing the series opener against the Texas Rangers—one of the teams competing for a playoff spot—was even worse.
Dylan Cease was roughed up and was taken out by manager John Schneider after going just 2.2 innings, allowing three hits, four runs, one earned run, and six walks. If there was any upside, Cease was able to punch out three batters before handing the ball over to Brendan Cellucci.
Entering the second game of the crucial three-game series, Toronto holds a 76-78 record, as their only path to the playoffs is through the Wild Card. The Rangers sit at 77-77 and still have a chance to win their division, while also having a shot at the Wild Card.
With a must-win game Saturday night, how are the Blue Jays' playoff odds going into arguably one of the biggest games of the season?
Blue Jays Playoff Odds
According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays hold a 14.4% chance of making the playoffs. For the defending American League champions, missing the playoffs would be embarrassing after going to the dance last season in dominant fashion.
The Blue Jays have the talent to get the job done, but a lot is going to have to go their way from here on out. Both the Rangers and the Chicago White Sox are in the Wild Card hunt and hold the tiebreaker over Toronto, so the best-case scenario is just to win as many as possible.
Toronto sits 2.0 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and holds a six-game elimination number. The likelihood of Cease bouncing back is high, but the rest of the starting rotation has to step up, including Jose Soriano, who gets the start Saturday night.
Soriano's last outing against the Tigers was impressive, at least until the sixth inning, when he blew the no-hitter and the lead for the Blue Jays. Since joining the franchise, Soriano has had his ups and downs, but it just takes one start to hopefully find that consistency.
The Rangers enter the game tied with the Houston Astros for the AL West lead; the Blue Jays will go up against a Rangers team with a mission. The question is: is the Blue Jays' mission worth fighting harder for than the Rangers'?
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Dominic Minchella is a 2024 Eastern Michigan University graduate with a BA in Communications, Media, and Theatre Arts and a Journalism minor. He covers Major League Baseball for On SI and spends his free time watching games and sharing his insights.