How Blue Jays Can Win or Lose AL East After Yankees Tie for Lead
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The Toronto Blue Jays just can’t seem to get anything going against the Boston Red Sox.
Tuesday’s 7-1 loss put the Blue Jays (90-68) in a bind. That isn’t just because Toronto managed just four hits and got its only run off an Isiah Kiner-Falefa solo home run. The loss, combined with the New York Yankees’ win over the Chicago White Sox means the American League East Division race is now tied with four games remaining.
Toronto has surrendered its lead to New York (90-68), which means the Blue Jays could end up in a wild card series next week, as opposed to the bye to the divisional round they were hoping for when they clinched a playoff berth on Sunday. All isn’t lost. But Toronto must turn things around fast and make sure it doesn’t end the season behind the Yankees.
Toronto Blue Jays AL East Scenarios
Toronto’s magic number to clinch the division remains stuck at four, which is a combination of Blue Jays wins and Yankees losses. But, with the Yankees now tied with the Blue Jays for the division lead, it’s really about what happens in the final four games.
The Blue Jays have one more game with Boston on Thursday while the Yankees have one more game with the White Sox. After that, Toronto remains at home to host the Tampa Bay Rays while the Yankees host Baltimore. New York has certainly drawn a more favorable schedule down the stretch than the Blue Jays.
There are three scenarios that are worth looking at with four games remaining.
Toronto wins at least one more game than New York: The Blue Jays win the AL East, and the Yankees take the No. 4 playoff seed and host a wild card series. Toronto would likely get a bye to the divisional round.
New York wins at least one more game than Toronto: The Yankees win the AL East, and the Blue Jays take the No. 4 playoff seed and host a wild card series. New York would likely get a bye to the divisional round.
Toronto and New York win the same number of games: The Blue Jays get the higher playoff seed due to winning the season series with the Yankees. New York would be the No. 4 seed and host a wild card series. Toronto would likely get a bye to the divisional round.
The tiebreaker is now significant with the two teams tied. New York cannot win a scenario in which it has the same record as Toronto. All the Blue Jays need to do is match the Yankees’ record in the final four games and they can still get the seed that goes to the winner and, most likely, a bye to the divisional round.
The Blue Jays are seeking to win their first division title since 2015. Since that division title they've been to the postseason four other times, but always as a wild card team. The Blue Jays reached the ALCS again in 2016 but fell to Cleveland.
Toronto Blue Jays Magic Number Watch
Magic Number to Clinch AL East: 4 (including tiebreaker over Yankees)
Toronto Blue Jays Games Remaining: 4
Toronto Blue Jays Remaining Schedule: Sept. 25 vs. Boston; Sept. 26-28, vs. Tampa Bay.
AL East Division Race (after Sept. 24)
Toronto Blue Jays: 90-68 (tied for division lead)
New York Yankees: 90-68 (tied for division lead)
New York Yankees Remaining Schedule (4 games): Sept. 25 vs. Chicago White Sox; Sept. 26-28, vs. Baltimore.
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Matthew Postins is an award-winning sports journalist who covers Major League Baseball for OnSI. He also covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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